收藏切换
Reliability assessment model of natural gas pipeline line system under multiple failure modes
收藏切换
PDF
Houjia XU1, 2, Jian SHUAI1, 2, Yuntao LI**, 1, 2, Xu YAN1, Xingtao LI3, Bingcai SUN4
China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(9) : 176 - 184
Less
收藏切换
China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(9): 176-184
Safety engineering technology
Reliability assessment model of natural gas pipeline line system under multiple failure modes
Full
Houjia XU1, 2, Jian SHUAI1, 2, Yuntao LI**, 1, 2, Xu YAN1, Xingtao LI3, Bingcai SUN4
Affiliations
  • 1College of Safety and Ocean Engineering, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China
  • 2Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Production Safety and Emergency Technology Emergency Management, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China
  • 3China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company Ltd., Beijing 100034, China
  • 4CNPC Safety and Environment Protection Research Institute, Beijing 102206, China
Published: 2025-09-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.09.0510
Outline
收藏切换

In order to ensure the safe operation of gas pipeline networks and to enable the overall reliability assessment of pipeline systems, a three-level reliability evaluation model "component-segment-pipeline network" was proposed for natural gas pipeline networks. First, the state equations of steel pipe and weld units under different failure modes were established by analyzing the composition of the pipe network line system. Combined with the Monte Carlo algorithm, the failure probability under different failure modes was calculated. Based on fault tree analysis and the minimal cut set theory, a "component-segment" level reliability model was developed, enabling the hierarchical reliability evaluation from components to pipeline segments. Next, the GO method was applied to analyze the topological structure of the pipeline network, and a structural reliability model at "segment-pipeline networ" level was established. The structural reliability of the entire pipeline network was calculated and weak segments in terms of reliability were identified rapidly. Finally, a case study was conducted to verify the accuracy and applicability of the proposed model. The results show that the reliability of pipeline network systems is positively correlated with pipe material strength and wall thickness, and negatively correlated with the diameter-to-thickness ratio and internal pressure. Compared to high-grade pipelines represented by X80, networks composed of lower-grade pipelines exhibit higher sensitivity to external factors, with their reliability being more significantly affected by external disturbances.

failure mode  /  pipe network line system  /  reliability assessment  /  pipeline segment reliability  /  graphical and operational (GO) method
Houjia XU, Jian SHUAI, Yuntao LI, Xu YAN, Xingtao LI, Bingcai SUN. Reliability assessment model of natural gas pipeline line system under multiple failure modes[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (9) : 176 -184 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.09.0510
Year 2025 volume 35 Issue 9
PDF
61
6
Cite this Article
BibTeX
Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.09.0510
  • Receive Date:2025-04-03
  • Online Date:2026-07-09
  • Published:2025-09-28
Article Data
Affiliations
History
  • Received:2025-04-03
  • Revised:2025-06-10
Funding
Affiliations
    1College of Safety and Ocean Engineering, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China
    2Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Production Safety and Emergency Technology Emergency Management, China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing 102249, China
    3China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company Ltd., Beijing 100034, China
    4CNPC Safety and Environment Protection Research Institute, Beijing 102206, China
References
Share
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/zgaqkxxb/EN/10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.09.0510
Share to
QR

Scan QR to access full text

Cite this article
BibTeX
Citations
表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
关闭全屏
  • BibTeX
  • EndNote
  • RefWorks
  • TxT