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Social risk assessment of Three Gorges lock scheduling mode based on SNA-BN
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Rong LI1, 2, Qing LIU1, 3, Lei WANG**, 1, 3, Yue ZHONG1, Yufeng LAN4, Hang NAN4
China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(8) : 148 - 155
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China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(8): 148-155
• Safety engineering technology •
Social risk assessment of Three Gorges lock scheduling mode based on SNA-BN
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Rong LI1, 2, Qing LIU1, 3, Lei WANG**, 1, 3, Yue ZHONG1, Yufeng LAN4, Hang NAN4
Affiliations
  • 1School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430063, China
  • 2Scientific Research Department, Zhejiang Institute of Communications, Hangzhou Zhejiang 311100, China
  • 3State Key Laboratory of Maritime Technology and Safety, Wuhan Hubei 430063, China
  • 4Three Gorges Navigation Authority, Yichang Hubei 443000, China
Published: 2025-08-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.08.1600
Outline
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To enhance the intelligent level and risk-bearing capacity of three gorges locks, first, SNA was used for stakeholder identification and extraction for Three Gorges lock reservation scheduling. Stakeholder network characteristics were characterized by three centrality indicators: degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and closeness centrality. An assessment index system was construct from four dimensions: legality, rationality, feasibility and controllability. Then, based on the potential coupling relationship between the indicators, a BN was used to construct a social risk assessment model for the Three Gorges lock reservation and scheduling mode to quantify the direction and intensity of the role of each indicator. Finally, key factors affecting social stability were identified through a sensitivity analysis. The results show that the social risk level under the scheduling mode of the Three Gorges lock is low. The order of influence of the four first-level indicators on the overall social risk is legality, controllability, feasibility, and rationality. The compliance with rule revision, approval, and issuance, the vulnerability of negative public opinion, the vulnerability of mass incidents, the success rate of appointment, and the coverage of security management strategy are the key factors affecting the overall social risk.

social network analysis (SNA)  /  Bayesian network (BN)  /  Three Gorges ship lock  /  scheduled scheduling  /  social risk assessment  /  stakeholder
Rong LI, Qing LIU, Lei WANG, Yue ZHONG, Yufeng LAN, Hang NAN. Social risk assessment of Three Gorges lock scheduling mode based on SNA-BN[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (8) : 148 -155 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.08.1600
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Year 2025 volume 35 Issue 8
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Article Info
doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.08.1600
  • Receive Date：2025-04-16
  • Online Date：2026-07-09
  • Published：2025-08-28
Article Data
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History
  • Received：2025-04-16
  • Revised：2025-06-12
Funding
Affiliations
    1School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan Hubei 430063, China
    2Scientific Research Department, Zhejiang Institute of Communications, Hangzhou Zhejiang 311100, China
    3State Key Laboratory of Maritime Technology and Safety, Wuhan Hubei 430063, China
    4Three Gorges Navigation Authority, Yichang Hubei 443000, China
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光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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