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Simulation of subjective probability of safety accidents among engineering personnel based on similar scenario knowledge transfer
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Yu ZHANG1, Zhiwu LI1, Wei ZHONG2, Juanru HE3
China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(7) : 106 - 113
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China Safety Science Journal | 2025, 35(7): 106-113
Safety engineering technology
Simulation of subjective probability of safety accidents among engineering personnel based on similar scenario knowledge transfer
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Yu ZHANG1, Zhiwu LI1, Wei ZHONG2, Juanru HE3
Affiliations
  • 1School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China
  • 2Party Committee Student Affairs Department (Division), Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu Sichuan 610066, China
  • 3Henan Zhongtian High-tech Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou Henan 450001, China
Published: 2025-07-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.07.1047
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To study the influence of similar scenario knowledge transfer on the subjective probability of safety accidents of engineers under avoidance behavior, the scenario similarity variable was introduced, and a subjective probability evolution model for safety accidents among engineering personnel groups was constructed and simulated. The results show that knowledge transfer in similar scenarios accelerates the convergence of the mean subjective probability, and reduces the subjective probability differences between individuals and scenarios, but also leads to the underestimation of accident rates in high-accident-rate scenarios. There is a "high-risk" accident scenario with the largest number of fatalities, where the accident rate ranges from 0.4 to 0.8. When there is a significant mortality rate difference between two scenarios, scenario knowledge transfer reduces losses only if the low-mortality-scenario has a higher accident rate than the high-mortality one. With close mortality rates but greatly varying accident rates, incomplete knowledge transfer may cause greater losses.

scenario similarity  /  knowledge transfer  /  engineering personnel  /  safety accidents  /  subjective probability  /  avoidance behavior  /  cellular automaton (CA)
Yu ZHANG, Zhiwu LI, Wei ZHONG, Juanru HE. Simulation of subjective probability of safety accidents among engineering personnel based on similar scenario knowledge transfer[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025 , 35 (7) : 106 -113 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.07.1047
Year 2025 volume 35 Issue 7
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.07.1047
  • Receive Date:2025-02-20
  • Online Date:2026-07-09
  • Published:2025-07-28
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History
  • Received:2025-02-20
  • Revised:2025-05-10
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Affiliations
    1School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China
    2Party Committee Student Affairs Department (Division), Sichuan Normal University, Chengdu Sichuan 610066, China
    3Henan Zhongtian High-tech Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou Henan 450001, China
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多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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