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A probability analysis method and application of stress intensity limit St in creep evaluation of high‑temperature components
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Xinyang HOU, Jianguo GONG, Jinhui FU, Yang GAO, Fuzhen XUAN
Pressure Vessel Technology | 2026, 43(1) : 26 - 33
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Pressure Vessel Technology | 2026, 43(1): 26-33
• Designs & Analyses •
A probability analysis method and application of stress intensity limit St in creep evaluation of high‑temperature components
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Xinyang HOU, Jianguo GONG, Jinhui FU, Yang GAO, Fuzhen XUAN
Affiliations
  • School of Mechanical and Power Engineering,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China
Published: 2026-01-30 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4837.2026.01.004
Outline
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Creep is a major damage mechanism for high‑temperature components in nuclear power plants,and the temperature‑ and time‑dependent stress intensity limit St is an important material parameter for creep assessment.In the ASME Code,safety factors are directly applied to the three criteria for determining the stress intensity limit St,but the implied failure probability and conservatism of this method have rarely been reported.To quantify the failure probability of St,functional expressions for the failure probability corresponding to each criterion were derived in this study based on creep data of Alloy 617,combined with the relationship between each Stcriterion and the average creep rupture life equation.The failure probabilities of the three criteria for St of Alloy 617 were calculated,and the effects of safety factors(1.0,1.25,1.5) on the failure probabilities were discussed.The results show that the stress intensity limit St of Alloy 617 exhibits a relatively low failure probability(at 750 ℃,10⁻⁹~10⁻⁵;at 850 ℃,10-8~10-5;at 950 ℃,10-8~10-4),indicating a high level of conservatism.The minimum stress for the onset of tertiary creep criterion and the minimum creep rupture stress criterion play a controlling role in St,depending on the stress level.The findings can provide a theoretical basis for the probabilistic evaluation of material parameters related to high‑temperature strength assessment.

Alloy 617  /  stress intensity limit St  /  safety factor  /  failure probability
侯鑫阳, 宫建国, 付金辉, 高阳, 轩福贞. 高温部件蠕变评价中应力强度限值St的概率分析方法及应用. 压力容器, 2026 , 43 (1) : 26 -33 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4837.2026.01.004
Xinyang HOU, Jianguo GONG, Jinhui FU, Yang GAO, Fuzhen XUAN. A probability analysis method and application of stress intensity limit St in creep evaluation of high‑temperature components[J]. Pressure Vessel Technology, 2026 , 43 (1) : 26 -33 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4837.2026.01.004
Year 2026 volume 43 Issue 1
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doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-4837.2026.01.004
  • Receive Date:2025-09-30
  • Online Date:2026-10-23
  • Published:2026-01-30
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  • Received:2025-09-30
  • Revised:2025-11-24
Affiliations
    School of Mechanical and Power Engineering,East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai 200237,China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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