Full
Outline
Creep is a major damage mechanism for high‑temperature components in nuclear power plants，and the temperature‑ and time‑dependent stress intensity limit St is an important material parameter for creep assessment.In the ASME Code，safety factors are directly applied to the three criteria for determining the stress intensity limit St，but the implied failure probability and conservatism of this method have rarely been reported.To quantify the failure probability of St，functional expressions for the failure probability corresponding to each criterion were derived in this study based on creep data of Alloy 617，combined with the relationship between each Stcriterion and the average creep rupture life equation.The failure probabilities of the three criteria for St of Alloy 617 were calculated，and the effects of safety factors（1.0，1.25，1.5） on the failure probabilities were discussed.The results show that the stress intensity limit St of Alloy 617 exhibits a relatively low failure probability（at 750 ℃，10⁻⁹~10⁻⁵；at 850 ℃，10-8~10-5；at 950 ℃，10-8~10-4），indicating a high level of conservatism.The minimum stress for the onset of tertiary creep criterion and the minimum creep rupture stress criterion play a controlling role in St，depending on the stress level.The findings can provide a theoretical basis for the probabilistic evaluation of material parameters related to high‑temperature strength assessment.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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