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Early Identification of Emerging Research Topics through Weak Signal Analysis of Multi-Source Data
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Chao Tang1, Haiyun Xu1, Junhao Yang1, *, Xiao Tan2, Chunjiang Liu3
Journal of Modern Information | 2026, 46(3) : 108 - 123
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Journal of Modern Information | 2026, 46(3): 108-123
• INNOVATION INTELLIGENCE and TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING •
Early Identification of Emerging Research Topics through Weak Signal Analysis of Multi-Source Data
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Chao Tang1, Haiyun Xu1, Junhao Yang1, *, Xiao Tan2, Chunjiang Liu3
Affiliations
  • 1Business School，Shandong University of Technology，Zibo255000，China
  • 2Science and Technology Information Institute，Beijing Academy of Science and Technology，Beijing100089，China
  • 3National Science Library（Chengdu），Chinese Academy of Sciences，Chengdu610213，China
Published: 2026-03-01 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-0821.2026.03.009
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Purpose/Significance

Starting from the early features of emerging research topics and the characteristics of weak signals， this study aims to achieve early identification of emerging research topics through weak signal analysis based on multi-source data.

Method/Process

First， four types of data sources—patents， clinical， news articles， and academic papers—were utilized to extract topics using the BERTopic model and to construct a composite indicator of “emergence” for identifying emerging research topics. Next， based on topic visibility and topic diffusion， topic emergence maps and topic allocation maps were constructed to identify emerging research topics characterized by weak signals. Under the framework of multi-source data cross-validation， the potential influence of these topics was assessed. Finally， an empirical analysis is conducted in the field of stem cells.

Result/Conclusion

The empirical findings indicate that the weak signal-based emerging research topics identified in this study align more closely with the technological directions outlined in authoritative reports， high-impact journal publications， and specialized academic guidelines compared to other types of topics， and they exhibit strong cross-domain influence. The proposed early identification method for emerging research topics， based on weak signal analysis of multi-source data， not only enables early detection but also enhances the accuracy and coverage of topic identification through integrated multi-source data.

emerging research topics  /  weak signals  /  BERTopic model  /  early detection  /  multi-source data
Chao Tang, Haiyun Xu, Junhao Yang, Xiao Tan, Chunjiang Liu. Early Identification of Emerging Research Topics through Weak Signal Analysis of Multi-Source Data[J]. Journal of Modern Information, 2026 , 46 (3) : 108 -123 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-0821.2026.03.009
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Year 2026 volume 46 Issue 3
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Article Info
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-0821.2026.03.009
  • Receive Date：2025-04-14
  • Online Date：2026-06-05
  • Published：2026-03-01
Article Data
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History
  • Received：2025-04-14
Affiliations
    1Business School，Shandong University of Technology，Zibo255000，China
    2Science and Technology Information Institute，Beijing Academy of Science and Technology，Beijing100089，China
    3National Science Library（Chengdu），Chinese Academy of Sciences，Chengdu610213，China
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