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Objective This study investigates the variation patterns of runoff in glacier-fed inland rivers and their underlying mechanisms under climate warming， aiming to support water security in arid regions of Northwest China. Methods The Keriya River on the northern foot of the Kunlun Mountains was selected as the study object. Based on hydrological and meteorological data from 1961 to 2019， this study systematically assessed runoff variation characteristics and the driving mechanisms of climate change using the Mann-Kendall trend test， Pettitt method for abrupt change detection， wavelet period analysis， and partial correlation analysis. Hydrological regime changes before and after 2016 were compared from the perspective of reservoir construction. Results 1） Runoff of the Keriya River showed a highly significant increasing trend （p<0.001）， jointly regulated by dominant cycles of 28， 18， and 6 years， with no detectable abrupt structural change. 2） The climate in the basin exhibited asymmetric warming characteristics， with the warming rate of minimum temperature （0.055 ℃/year） being 2.2 times that of maximum temperature （0.025 ℃/year）， and precipitation increased following a stable 23-year cycle. 3） Runoff variation followed a "temperature-dominated， precipitation-assisted， lagged response" pattern， with minimum temperature as the core driving factor and showing a 1-year lag effect. 4） After a reservoir was constructed， a preliminary peak-shaving and valley-filling regulatory effect was observed， with the runoff coefficient of variation decreasing by 48.91%. The increase in runoff during the non-flood season was significantly greater than in the flood season. Conclusion Runoff increase of the Keriya River is primarily dominated by snow and glacier melt induced by nighttime warming， and the basin is currently in a gain period of glacial meltwater. Reservoir operation has already produced a peak-shaving and valley-filling regulatory effect on natural hydrological processes， but it has not altered the long-term increasing trend driven by climate. The findings provide a scientific basis for water resources management in alpine inland river basins under climate change.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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