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Article(id=1217781124714119837, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149652044408987649, issueId=1217779717386715826, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.19812/j.cnki.jfsq11-5956/ts.20250310003, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=research-article, receivedDate=1741536000000, receivedDateStr=2025-03-10, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1768271245410, onlineDateStr=2026-01-13, pubDate=1750780800000, pubDateStr=2025-06-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1768271245410, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-01-13, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1768271245410, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1768271245410, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1217779717386715826, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149652044408987649, year='2025', volume='16', issue='12', pageStart='1', pageEnd='320', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1768270909877, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1768299620707, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1217900139386163208, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149652044408987649, issueId=1217779717386715826, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1217900139386163209, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149652044408987649, issueId=1217779717386715826, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=198, endPage=204, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1217781125150327472, articleId=1217781124714119837, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149652044408987649, language=EN, title=Quantitative risk assessment of Staphylococcus aureus in coleslaw in Jilin Province, columnId=1151895321388347923, journalTitle=Journal of Food Safety & Quality, columnName=Food Analysis and Detection, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Objective To use coleslaw at the retail-to-consumption level as a source of contamination with Staphylococcus aureus, assess the health risk posed to residents of Jilin Province and identify the key contributing factors. Methods Based on the monitoring data of Staphylococcus aureus in coleslaw in Jilin Province from 2011 to 2019, combined with the data of residents’ coleslaw consumption and temperature, a prediction model of Staphylococcus aureus growth was established. The results were analysed and Monte Carlo simulated using @Risk8.0 software, and a quantitative risk assessment of Staphylococcus aureus in commercially available coleslaw in Jilin Province was carried out in 4 parts: Hazard identification, exposure assessment, hazard characterization and risk analysis. Results The data statistics showed that the initial contamination rate of Staphylococcus aureus in coleslaw was 3%, and the average contamination was -2.37 log10CFU/g, with a 95% confidence interval of (-5.88, 1.27) log10CFU/g. The assessment results showed that the probability of triggering Staphylococcus aureus intoxication was 0.1%, and the number of cases of illness that could be caused by Staphylococcus aureus was 154500 cases per year. Conclusion The initial level of Staphylococcus aureus contamination in coleslaw is most important in causing the risk of Staphylococcus aureus infection, follow by storage temperature. Keeping the source ingredients, preparation environment clean and hygienic, and having good refrigerator use habits are important measures to reduce the risk of developing Staphylococcus aureus infections in coleslaw.

, correspAuthors=Wei ZHAO, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=null, authorsList=Chang ZHU, Jing-Ying ZHENG, Ben SHI, Jing-Yu SUN, Wei ZHAO, Juan WANG, Jia-Jia AI, Yang BAI), CN=ArticleExt(id=1217781127369114391, articleId=1217781124714119837, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149652044408987649, language=CN, title=吉林省凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌的定量风险评估, columnId=1151895321958773274, journalTitle=食品安全质量检测学报, columnName=食品分析与检测, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

目的 以零售至消费环节的凉拌菜作为金黄色葡萄球菌的污染来源, 评估其对吉林省居民产生的健康风险及产生危险的关键因素。方法 根据2011—2019年吉林省凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌监测数据, 结合居民凉拌菜消费、温度等数据, 建立金黄色葡萄球菌生长预测模型。采用@Risk8.0软件分析并对结果进行蒙特卡罗模拟, 对吉林省市售凉拌菜中的金黄色葡萄球菌进行定量风险评估, 分为危害识别、暴露评估、危害特征描述和风险分析4个组成部分。结果 统计结果表明, 吉林省凉拌菜内的金黄色葡萄球菌初始污染率为3%, 平均污染量为-2.37 log10CFU/g, 95%置信区间为(-5.88, 1.27)(log10CFU/g)。评估结果显示, 引发金黄色葡萄球菌中毒的概率为0.1%, 每年可导致的患病例数为154.5万例。结论 凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球球菌初始污染水平对引起金葡菌感染风险最大, 其次是储存时间。保证制作食材、制作环境干净卫生, 缩短凉拌菜储存时间是降低发生凉拌菜中金葡菌感染风险的重要措施。

, correspAuthors=赵薇, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=
*赵薇(1981-), 女, 博士, 主任技师, 主要研究方向为微生物检验及流行病学。E-mail:
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朱畅(1999-), 女, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向为公共卫生。E-mail:

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朱畅(1999-), 女, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向为公共卫生。E-mail:

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朱畅(1999-), 女, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向为公共卫生。E-mail:

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1, caption=

Staphylococcus aureus contamination in coleslaw, 2011—2019

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
分类 金黄色葡萄球菌
检出率/% χ2 P
食品种类 素 2.19 (12/548) — 0.066
荤 6.59 (6/91)
荤素搭配 0.00 (0/31)
采样时间 2011—2013 1.52 (3/198) 0.160 0.689
2014—2016 3.05 (10/328)
2017—2019 3.47 (5/144)
采样环节 流通 3.08 (6/195) 1.544 0.462
餐饮 2.53 (12/475)
), ArticleFig(id=1217833932599509067, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1149652044408987649, articleId=1217781124714119837, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

2011—2019年凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌的污染情况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
分类 金黄色葡萄球菌
检出率/% χ2 P
食品种类 素 2.19 (12/548) — 0.066
荤 6.59 (6/91)
荤素搭配 0.00 (0/31)
采样时间 2011—2013 1.52 (3/198) 0.160 0.689
2014—2016 3.05 (10/328)
2017—2019 3.47 (5/144)
采样环节 流通 3.08 (6/195) 1.544 0.462
餐饮 2.53 (12/475)
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吉林省凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌的定量风险评估
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朱畅 1 , 郑晶莹 1 , 石奔 2 , 孙景昱 2 , 赵薇 2, * , 王娟 1 , 艾佳佳 1 , 白杨 1
食品安全质量检测学报 | 食品分析与检测 2025,16(12): 198-204
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食品安全质量检测学报 | 食品分析与检测 2025, 16(12): 198-204
吉林省凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌的定量风险评估
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朱畅1 , 郑晶莹1, 石奔2, 孙景昱2, 赵薇2, * , 王娟1, 艾佳佳1, 白杨1
作者信息
  • 1 吉林大学公共卫生学院, 长春 130021
  • 2 吉林省疾病预防控制中心(吉林省预防医学科学院), 长春 130062

    • 朱畅(1999-), 女, 硕士研究生, 主要研究方向为公共卫生。E-mail:

通讯作者:

*赵薇(1981-), 女, 博士, 主任技师, 主要研究方向为微生物检验及流行病学。E-mail:
Quantitative risk assessment of Staphylococcus aureus in coleslaw in Jilin Province
Chang ZHU1 , Jing-Ying ZHENG1, Ben SHI2, Jing-Yu SUN2, Wei ZHAO2, * , Juan WANG1, Jia-Jia AI1, Yang BAI1
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Public Health, Jilin University, Changchun 130021, China
  • 2 Jilin Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Jilin Provincial Academy of Preventive Medicine), Changchun 130062, China
出版时间: 2025-06-25 doi: 10.19812/j.cnki.jfsq11-5956/ts.20250310003
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摘要
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目的 以零售至消费环节的凉拌菜作为金黄色葡萄球菌的污染来源, 评估其对吉林省居民产生的健康风险及产生危险的关键因素。方法 根据2011—2019年吉林省凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌监测数据, 结合居民凉拌菜消费、温度等数据, 建立金黄色葡萄球菌生长预测模型。采用@Risk8.0软件分析并对结果进行蒙特卡罗模拟, 对吉林省市售凉拌菜中的金黄色葡萄球菌进行定量风险评估, 分为危害识别、暴露评估、危害特征描述和风险分析4个组成部分。结果 统计结果表明, 吉林省凉拌菜内的金黄色葡萄球菌初始污染率为3%, 平均污染量为-2.37 log10CFU/g, 95%置信区间为(-5.88, 1.27)(log10CFU/g)。评估结果显示, 引发金黄色葡萄球菌中毒的概率为0.1%, 每年可导致的患病例数为154.5万例。结论 凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球球菌初始污染水平对引起金葡菌感染风险最大, 其次是储存时间。保证制作食材、制作环境干净卫生, 缩短凉拌菜储存时间是降低发生凉拌菜中金葡菌感染风险的重要措施。

金黄色葡萄球菌  /  凉拌菜  /  定量风险评估  /  零售到消费  /  吉林省

Objective To use coleslaw at the retail-to-consumption level as a source of contamination with Staphylococcus aureus, assess the health risk posed to residents of Jilin Province and identify the key contributing factors. Methods Based on the monitoring data of Staphylococcus aureus in coleslaw in Jilin Province from 2011 to 2019, combined with the data of residents’ coleslaw consumption and temperature, a prediction model of Staphylococcus aureus growth was established. The results were analysed and Monte Carlo simulated using @Risk8.0 software, and a quantitative risk assessment of Staphylococcus aureus in commercially available coleslaw in Jilin Province was carried out in 4 parts: Hazard identification, exposure assessment, hazard characterization and risk analysis. Results The data statistics showed that the initial contamination rate of Staphylococcus aureus in coleslaw was 3%, and the average contamination was -2.37 log10CFU/g, with a 95% confidence interval of (-5.88, 1.27) log10CFU/g. The assessment results showed that the probability of triggering Staphylococcus aureus intoxication was 0.1%, and the number of cases of illness that could be caused by Staphylococcus aureus was 154500 cases per year. Conclusion The initial level of Staphylococcus aureus contamination in coleslaw is most important in causing the risk of Staphylococcus aureus infection, follow by storage temperature. Keeping the source ingredients, preparation environment clean and hygienic, and having good refrigerator use habits are important measures to reduce the risk of developing Staphylococcus aureus infections in coleslaw.

Staphylococcus aureus  /  coleslaw  /  risk assessment  /  retail to consumption  /  Jilin Province
朱畅, 郑晶莹, 石奔, 孙景昱, 赵薇, 王娟, 艾佳佳, 白杨. 吉林省凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌的定量风险评估. 食品安全质量检测学报, 2025 , 16 (12) : 198 -204 . DOI: 10.19812/j.cnki.jfsq11-5956/ts.20250310003
Chang ZHU, Jing-Ying ZHENG, Ben SHI, Jing-Yu SUN, Wei ZHAO, Juan WANG, Jia-Jia AI, Yang BAI. Quantitative risk assessment of Staphylococcus aureus in coleslaw in Jilin Province[J]. Journal of Food Safety & Quality, 2025 , 16 (12) : 198 -204 . DOI: 10.19812/j.cnki.jfsq11-5956/ts.20250310003
正文
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0 引言
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食源性疾病是全球最严峻的公共卫生挑战之一, 也是食品安全面临的最大难题[1]。金黄色葡萄球菌在食源性疾病中具有非常重要的病原学地位。该菌呈球菌状, 往往排列成簇状, 被描述为“葡萄样”, 易定植在人的皮肤和黏膜上, 引发各种感染如菌血症、感染性心内膜炎、胃肠炎、脑膜炎等, 是最常见的细菌感染之一。其产生的肠毒素可导致食物中毒[2-4], 为各国食品安全带来巨大风险。在美国, 每年约有241000人因感染金黄色葡萄球菌而引发食源性疾病[5], 产生的医疗费用高达10亿美元[6]。在欧盟(如法国、意大利和匈牙利), 2015年由病原微生物诱导的食源性疾病中有9.9%是金黄色葡萄球菌肠毒素引起的[6]。在中国, 微生物性食源性疾病占食物中毒事件的53.7%; 其中25%是由金黄色葡萄球菌污染所致[7]。金黄色葡萄球菌污染的食品种类繁多, 尤以即食食品为主, 其中凉拌菜是较易受金黄色葡萄球菌肠毒素污染的高风险食品之一[8]。
凉拌菜是我国传统饮食之一, 拥有几千年的食用历史, 起源可追溯到古代。其制作工艺简单, 即将各种蔬菜、豆制品或其他提前备好的食材与调味品混拌而成, 口感爽脆、无需加热, 深受广大消费者喜爱。然而由于凉拌菜制作过程中未经高温杀菌处理, 极易受到微生物污染, 故凉拌菜也是引发食源性疾病的高危食品之一[9-10]。多项研究提示凉拌菜中常见致病菌为金黄色葡萄球菌[11], 然而, 目前国内外对金黄色葡萄球菌进行的定量风险评估主要集中在乳制品、肉类及其加工制品[12-14], 凉拌菜并不是其主要关注食品品类。为实现预防疾病效益最大化, 应将食品安全关注重点转移至食品污染的早期评估, 及时发现并控制食品安全隐患, 从而减少潜在的健康隐患。
基于此, 本研究以吉林省市售凉拌菜为研究对象, 从零售环节入手, 结合2011—2019年吉林省凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌检测结果和相关生长影响因素, 从风险评估的4个关键步骤对金黄色葡萄球菌开展定量评估, 旨在为即食食品中食源性致病菌的风险评估提供参考, 进而助力构建更加完善的食品安全管理体系。
1 材料与方法
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1.1 数据来源
吉林省凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌污染率和污染水平等数据, 主要来自2011—2019年吉林省9个地(市)级食源性致病菌监测数据。依据食品获取路径、流通环节和消费特征, 通过随机抽样方式对居民消费凉拌菜的主要地点进行采样, 并依据GB 4789.10—2016《食品安全国家标准 食品微生物学检验 金黄色葡萄球菌检验》对金黄色葡萄球菌进行检测。为保障检测流程的精准性与可靠性, 质量控制遵照标准要求操作; 居民凉拌菜消费数据参考文献[8]; 人口、温度数据来自吉林省统计年鉴。
1.2 评估依据
参考国际食品法典委员会《微生物风险评估原则和指南》, 从危害识别、暴露评估、危害特征描述和风险分析4个方面进行评估。
危害识别、危害特征描述: 参考相关学术著作、科研文献或分析报告, 整理金黄色葡萄球菌的危害特征信息。
暴露评估: 从凉拌菜的初始污染水平开始, 到消费者食用最终污染水平结束, 涵盖凉拌菜的零售至消费环节。各环节中, 前一环节的输出分布作为下一环节的输入, 最后得到食用时的污染水平。根据GB 4789.10—2016中MPN计数法对采集样品进行定量检测。为便于分析, 本研究假定MPN可与CFU替换。
风险分析: 在危害识别、危害特征描述、暴露评估的基础上, 考虑不确定性因素, 确定吉林省居民食用被污染的凉拌菜致食物中毒的概率。
1.3 评估内容
研究吉林省市售凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌污染可能导致的中毒风险。
1.4 评估环节
从凉拌菜零售到消费环节进行风险评估。
1.5 数据处理
使用Excel 2013进行数据整理与初步分析, 用@Risk 8.0对参数进行风险评估。风险评估模型采用拉丁超立方抽样方法进行10000次迭代的蒙特卡洛模拟运算, 处理运算中, 计算机会从模型的每个概率分布中提取一个指标, 据此执行随后处理。同时, 采用Spearman相关系数对变量与模型暴露评估结果进行敏感性分析。
2 结果与分析
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2.1 危害识别
金黄色葡萄球菌属微球菌科, 葡萄球菌属, 为革兰氏阳性菌, 直径约为1 μm, 周身无鞭毛, 形成簇状, 广泛存在于环境中, 是食源性疾病的常见致病菌。金黄色葡萄球菌不产生芽孢, 其既可在有氧环境下生长繁殖, 也可以在无氧环境中存活, 被归类为兼性厌氧菌。金黄色葡萄球菌最佳生长温度为35~40 ℃, 人感染的潜伏期较短, 患者可能会出现食物中毒症状甚至导致死亡[15]。金黄色葡萄球菌肠毒素是导致中毒的主要原因, 葡萄球菌肠毒素是一种单链蛋白, 耐热, 耐酸, 可抵抗蛋白酶水解[16], 仅需20~100 ng即可引发食物中毒[17]。一般的烹饪手段很难将其灭活, 即使经过100 ℃、30 min处理后, 仍具有生物活性[18]。研究表明目前已发现27种肠毒素, 其中包括5种经典肠毒素和22种新型肠毒素[19-20]。
全球疾病负担报告显示, 2019年全球因细菌引起的死亡中, 金黄色葡萄球菌位居首位[21]。在我国, 由金葡菌引发的食物中毒事件也十分严重, 且呈现出逐年增加的趋势[22-25]。据国家统计局数据表明, 2019年我国因金黄色葡萄球菌及其毒素引发的食物中毒案例, 在所有细菌性食物中毒中位居第三位[16]。
2.2 危害特征描述
人可通过接触、摄食等途径感染金黄色葡萄球菌, 感染症状为呕吐、恶心、发汗、发热, 可伴随腹泻或没有腹泻症状[26-27], 通常属于自限性疾病, 大多数患者在发病后24~48 h内会逐渐好转, 少数高风险群体在感染后会引发严重后果[28]。根据GB 29921—2013《食品安全国家标准 食品中致病菌限量》, 对金黄色葡萄球菌的限量要求是: n=5, c=1, m=100 CFU/g(mL), M=1000 CFU/g(mL), 即在抽检的5个样品中, 不允许任何一个样品金葡菌含量超过1000 CFU/g(mL), 本研究以1000 CFU/g(mL)作为金葡菌致食物中毒的阈值标准。
2.3 暴露评估
2.3.1 食品污染状况
根据2011—2019年吉林省凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌检测数据, 检测凉拌菜样品总数为670份, 其中有18份样品阳性检出, 其余样品均无金黄色葡萄球菌检出, 详见表1。以凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌的平均检出率作为凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌的初始污染水平, 采用贝塔分布函数描述初始污染率分布: Beta (s+1, n-s+1)。即凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌的初始污染率Pp为Beta (19, 653)。分布结果如图1所示, 凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌的初始污染率均值为3%, 95%置信区间为1.8%~4.4%。该初始污染率较低, 评估值稳定, 可将其作为参数输入至后续风险评估环节。
阳性样品中金黄色葡萄球菌的污染水平(Cp)采用Risknormal函数进行描述, 公式为Risknormal (μ, σ)。分布结果如图2所示, 阳性样品中金黄色葡萄球菌初始污染水平均值为1.9047 log10CFU/g, 95%置信区间为(0.7, 3.1)(log10CFU/g), 表明阳性样品污染水平变化范围较大。
对于检测结果为阴性的样品, 其污染水平用left-hand-tailed cumulative分布模拟, 表达式为Riskcumulative (-6, 1{-6,-2.5,1}, {0.01,0.5,0.99})。如图3所示, 阴性样品中金黄色葡萄球菌初始污染水平均值为-2.5000 log10CFU/g, 95%置信区间为(-5.9, 0.9) log10CFU/g。大部分阴性样品污染水平均值较低, 接近于0 CFU/g。
综上, 吉林省凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌的初始污染水平采用Discrete函数进行描述: Discrete [Cp: Cn, Pp: (1－Pp)]。结果如图4所示, 吉林省凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌平均污染量为-2.3725 log10CFU/g, 95%置信区间为(-5.88, 1.27) log10CFU/g, 全省凉拌菜的污染水平较低。
2.3.2 凉拌菜从零售到消费过程中金黄色葡萄球菌变化情况
(1)储存时间
参考文献[8], 凉拌菜的食用时间分布如下: 在1 h以内食用的居民占比66%; 1~8 h内食用的居民占比31%; 而在8~24 h内食用的居民仅占3%。假设凉拌菜食用时间(Ts)服从分布为Discrete ({Uniform(0,1), Uniform(1,8), Uniform(8,24)}, {0.66,0.31,0.03}), 分布图如图5所示。储存时间的均值为2.224 h, 其95%置信区间为(0.04, 11.34) h。大多数凉拌菜的储存时间为2.2 h, 储存时间存在较大的差异。
(2)储存温度
参考文献[8], 凉拌菜食用时间小于1 h的人中, 选择使用冰箱储存的占比为23%, 凉拌菜食用时间大于1 h的人中, 选择使用冰箱储存的占比为53%。根据吉林省统计年鉴气温数据, 2011—2019年吉林省平均温度为6 °C, 最低温度为-17 °C, 最高温度为25 °C; 采用pert分布模拟室温储藏分布情况: Pert (min, mean, max); 假设冰箱冷藏室的温度为0~8 °C, 拟合最终储藏温度的分布为IF (Ts<1, Discrete (Pert(-17,6,25): Uniform(0,8), {0.77,0.23}), Discrete (Pert(-17,6,25); Uniform(0,8), {0.47,0.53}), 分布图见图6, 储藏温度的均值为4.9 °C, 其95%置信区间为(-9.0, 18.7) ℃。大多数凉拌菜的储存温度为4.9 °C, 储存温度同样存在较大的差异。
(3)生长预测模型
因凉拌菜自身组成较为复杂, 本次研究选用美国农业部开发的病原菌模型程序(USDA integrated pathogen modeling program, IPMP)中的金黄色葡萄球菌模型进行评估[29-30], 动态生长模型为IF [(T>7 °C, 0.0294T-0.147)2, 0], 生长停滞期模型为1/(0.0434T-0.2936)2。
2.3.3 食用时金黄色葡萄球菌的污染水平
根据暴露评估过程中的主要参数, 参考相关文献[8],选用模型IF [LT>Ts, C0,C0+GR×(Ts-LT)]进行评估最终食用时金黄色葡萄球菌的污染水平, 模型中LT为金黄色葡萄球菌生长停滞期, GR为金黄色葡萄球菌的生长速率。最终食用时的金葡菌污染水平为-5.71~0.91 log10 CFU/g, 平均值为-2.3752 log10 CFU/g, 其中大于3的概率为0.1%, 拟合分布详见图7。
2.4 风险特征描述
2.4.1 疾病发生概率描述
运用@Risk8.0风险评估软件, 结合10000次蒙特卡罗模拟, 估算出吉林省由食用凉拌菜导致金黄色葡萄球菌食物中毒的概率为0.1%。根据吉林省第七次人口普查的结果显示, 吉林省常住人口为2746.23万人, 凉拌菜每人平均每年消费量参考文献[8], 为56.27次, 故由食用凉拌菜而导致金黄色葡萄球菌中毒的病例约为154.5万例。
2.4.2 敏感度分析
将相关参数一同进行敏感性分析, 得出每个参数的相关系数, 如图8所示。从图8中可以看出, 初始污染水平与中毒风险的相关性最大, 相关系数为1.00, 其次为储存时间。
2.5 不确定性分析
吉林省因食用凉拌菜导致金黄色葡萄球菌食物中毒的概率为0.1%, 中毒病例约为154.5万例, 与中毒风险相关性最大的是初始污染水平, 其次为储存时间。本次风险评估存在一定不确定性, 在本次评估中, 由于缺乏吉林省居民部分调查数据, 如吉林省居民凉拌菜消费量及储存时间, 故采用上海市居民凉拌菜消费调查数据作为参考; 因凉拌菜自身组成成分复杂, 生长预测模型选用更为普遍的肉汤模型, 以确保评估结果的相对可靠; 本次评估时间跨度较大, 为2011年至2019年, 期间环境变化可能对数据准确性产生影响, 尤其是温度等参数可能并不准确, 从而降低评估结果的准确性。以上各项因素都对本次评估结果的不确定性产生了显著影响, 增加了评估过程中的不确定性, 也提升了评估过程中的复杂性。因此, 未来的研究需要进一步完善数据收集, 尤其是针对吉林省的具体调查, 以提高评估的精准性和可信度。
3 讨论与结论
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本次定量风险评估结果表明, 吉林省每年因食用市售凉拌菜而导致金黄色葡萄球菌引发的食物中毒概率为0.1%, 引起全省中毒病例约为154.5万例。中毒概率和瞿洋等预测的即食生菜的中毒概率接近, 中毒人数远大于其预测人数。两项研究结果存在差异的原因可能源于多个方面。首先两项研究风险评估预测模型选择不同, 其原因可能是两项研究的研究食品种类相似但并不一致, 基于不同的理论基础和研究假设选用不同的预测模型, 从而导致不同的预测结果。其次两项研究的初始检测数据不一致, 因面向不同研究区域, 初始检测数据也会因地域不同而产生较大差异, 从而产生预测结果有差异。同样, 储藏温度和储藏时间等评估参数也会因研究区域不同而存在较大的差异, 继而影响预测结果。最后, 风险评估的不确定性也是一个难以避免的关键因素。由于食品安全领域的复杂性, 很多情况下缺乏足够的数据支持和准确的模型, 使得评估结果充满不确定性。这种不确定性在不同评估中可能表现为不同的评估结论, 从而进一步加大了两者之间的差异。
进行敏感性分析时发现: (1)凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌的初始污染水平对污染结果影响极为显著, 而初始污染水平的高低与凉拌菜食材质量、加工制作环境以及制作过程卫生密切相关, 因此要有效降低初始污染水平, 则要保证源头食材卫生、餐饮后厨环境卫生、备餐流程干净卫生[31]。重视源头食材的卫生选择, 确保所有原料均来自安全可靠的供应商。餐饮后厨的环境卫生也至关重要, 定期清洁和消毒加工区域是防止细菌滋生的有效手段。同时, 备餐流程的规范化和卫生管理也不容忽视, 这不仅包括厨具的清洗消毒, 还涉及到从原料处理到成品出餐的每一个环节。(2)除了初始污染水平, 凉拌菜的储存时间也会对污染结果产生较大影响。及时食用是保证食品安全的最佳选择。如果未能及时食用, 建议将未能及时食用的凉拌菜放入冰箱中冷藏保存, 可以在一定程度上避免凉拌菜受到细菌污染, 减缓细菌生长繁殖。但在温度较高的季节, 由于凉拌菜本身营养物质丰富, 长时间冷藏也会产生细菌滋生, 引起食品污染变质, 无法维持凉拌菜的安全卫生。故现买现吃、尽可能缩短储存时间是降低凉拌菜中发生细菌污染的关键手段, 可以最大限度地降低细菌污染的风险。
因此, 根据本次风险评估结果, 建议从以下几个方面进行管控: (1)应从源头严格把控食材的品质, 加强对其卫生状况的监督管理, 确保食品加工过程安全规范, 提升整体卫生标准。(2)应加强对消费者饮食习惯的宣传教育, 提醒其购买食品后应尽早食用。如需短时间保存, 可将食物置于冰箱的低温环境中, 避免在高温天气下长时间放置, 以防食品变质, 确保食用安全。(3)对于老年人、儿童以及免疫力较低的人群, 应适量摄入凉拌菜, 以减少食源性疾病的发生风险。同时, 建议此类人群选择更为安全、易于消化的食物, 确保饮食健康, 降低可能的健康隐患。
监测2011—2019年吉林省市售凉拌菜从零售到消费环节中金黄色葡萄球菌数量, 预测吉林省居民因食用被金黄色葡萄球菌污染的凉拌菜而导致的食源性疾病发生概率为0.1%, 引起全省中毒病例约为154.5万例。同时发现凉拌菜中金黄色葡萄球菌的初始污染水平对污染结果影响最大, 其次是储存时间, 提出从食材源头、食品加工制作过程、食品加工环境等角度出发降低金黄色葡萄球菌致病风险, 为工厂企业制定卫生标准、管理部门提高食品卫生管理效率提供扎实的理论支撑, 最大限度减少食源性疾病的发生, 以减少对人们构成的健康威胁。
基金
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  • 吉林省科技发展计划项目(20220203032SF)
文献
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2025年第16卷第12期
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doi: 10.19812/j.cnki.jfsq11-5956/ts.20250310003
  • 接收时间：2025-03-10
  • 首发时间：2026-01-13
  • 出版时间：2025-06-25
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  • 收稿日期：2025-03-10
基金
吉林省科技发展计划项目(20220203032SF)
作者信息
    1 吉林大学公共卫生学院, 长春 130021
    2 吉林省疾病预防控制中心(吉林省预防医学科学院), 长春 130062

通讯作者:

*赵薇(1981-), 女, 博士, 主任技师, 主要研究方向为微生物检验及流行病学。E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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