PDF
Full
Outline
To study the trend of runoff evolution under the influence of climate change and human activities, the Qinhuai River Basin was taken as the research area based on the hydrometeorological data of representative stations. Firstly, the Mann-Kendall method was used to study the variation trend of hydrometeorological elements in the basin. Secondly, the abrupt change points of the runoff series were discussed by orderly cluster method and double cumulative curve method. Thirdly, the key factors affecting runoff were screened from numerous hydrometeorological factors, and the Wavelet Analysis-BP neural network coupling model was established to predict the runoff. Finally, attribution analysis method was used to identify contribution of climate change and human activities to the runoff variation. The results show that the rainfall of the Xinhe river sluice presents a downward trend, while the Wudingmen sluice and the whole basin show an upward trend, but none of the trends were significant. The runoff of the basin shows an upward trend, and the increase trend of Xinhe river sluice is not significant, both the Wudingmen sluice and the whole basin increase trend pass the test of 0.01 confidence level, and the annual evaporation tends to decrease. There is a great consistency between the Wudingmen sluice and the whole basin in the variation trend of rainfall, runoff, and the time of abrupt change point. The contribution rates of human activities and climate change to runoff increase were 73.92% and 26.08%, respectively, the human activities were an important factor that led to the runoff variation. The conclusion provides a scientific basis for flood and drought prevention and water resources planning in this basin.
PDF
151
40
| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
关闭全屏
No. 86 Xueyuan South Road, Haidian District, Beijing
010-62199257
qkjq@cast.org.cn
Copyright © 2025 China Association for Science and Technology. All rights reserved. For all open access content, the relevant licensing terms apply.
Sponsored by the Office of the Leading Group for Cybersecurity and Informatization of CAST, and supported by Science and Technology Review Publishing House
