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Application of Improved Time-varying Linear Confluence Model in Flood Forecasting
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Liu-xing BAI1, Yan-hong SHI2, Jian-hua WANG1, Fu-zhi WANG3, Chun-hua TAO3
Water Resources and Power | 2023, 41(12) : 73 - 77
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Water Resources and Power | 2023, 41(12): 73-77
• HYDROLOGICAL FORECAST AND OPTIMAL SCHEDULING •
Application of Improved Time-varying Linear Confluence Model in Flood Forecasting
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Liu-xing BAI1, Yan-hong SHI2, Jian-hua WANG1, Fu-zhi WANG3, Chun-hua TAO3
Affiliations
  • 1.CHN Energy Dadu River Basin Hydropower Development Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610041, China
  • 2.Sichuan Xinneng Project Consulting Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610041, China
  • 3.CHN Energy Dadu River Big Data Service Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610041, China
Published: 2023-12-25 doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20230371
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From the objectives, variables and relations of the time-varying linear confluence model, it can be seen that the model has some constraints such as static parameters and the inability to consider the influence of interval runoff, and there are significant defects in the application of flood prediction. Therefore, the time-varying linear confluence model is improved by combining the chaotic mapping with the rich model to solve the diversity and adding the influence operator to replace the interval runoff. Using the measured runoff data of Maoergai Hydropower Station in the Heishui River basin for many years, and taking the forecast process, flood volume, flood peak and peak time as the evaluation index, the application analysis of the improved time-varying linear confluence model is carried out. The results show that the overall prediction qualification rate of the improved model is increased by 9.13%, and the certainty coefficient is increased by 0.25, which expands the reliability and practicability of the application of the time-varying linear confluence model.

interval runoff impact  /  static parameters  /  time-varying linear confluence model  /  tent chaotic mapping  /  improvement  /  flood forecasting
Liu-xing BAI, Yan-hong SHI, Jian-hua WANG, Fu-zhi WANG, Chun-hua TAO. Application of Improved Time-varying Linear Confluence Model in Flood Forecasting[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2023 , 41 (12) : 73 -77 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20230371
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Year 2023 volume 41 Issue 12
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Article Info
doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20230371
  • Receive Date：2023-02-14
  • Online Date：2026-01-28
  • Published：2023-12-25
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History
  • Received：2023-02-14
  • Revised：2023-03-29
Affiliations
    1.CHN Energy Dadu River Basin Hydropower Development Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610041, China
    2.Sichuan Xinneng Project Consulting Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610041, China
    3.CHN Energy Dadu River Big Data Service Co., Ltd., Chengdu 610041, China
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/sdnykx/EN/10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20230371
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Number of
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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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