In order to improve the prediction accuracy of ultra short-term wind power, a combined wind power prediction model based on IEWT-FE-BO-LSTM was proposed. Firstly, an improved empirical wavelet decomposition (IEWT) was used to decompose the historical wind power data. The Fuzzy Entropy (FE) algorithm was introduced to calculate the complexity of each decomposed submodel and reconstruct the submodel. For each recostructed component, a prediction model based on long short term neural network (LSTM) was established. Bayesian optimization algorithm (BO) was used for hyper parameters to solve the problem of poor training results caused by manual parameter adjustment. The example analysis based on historical wind farm data shows that the IEWT-FE-BO-LSTM model has high prediction accuracy and efficiency for ultra short-term wind power.
| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |