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Risk-based Optimal Combination Model of Medium and Long-term Contract Electricity for Cascade Hydropower Stations
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Zhen-kai HAOa, Xiong CHENGb, c, Hao ZHONGa, Wen-wu LIa
Water Resources and Power | 2023, 41(1) : 82 - 86
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Water Resources and Power | 2023, 41(1): 82-86
• HYDROLOGICAL FORECAST AND OPTIMAL SCHEDULING •
Risk-based Optimal Combination Model of Medium and Long-term Contract Electricity for Cascade Hydropower Stations
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Zhen-kai HAOa, Xiong CHENGb, c, Hao ZHONGa, Wen-wu LIa
Affiliations
  • a.College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443000, China
  • b.Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory for Operation and Control of Cascaded Hydropower Stations and Renewable Energy, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443000, China
  • c.College of Hydraulic & Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443000, China
Published: 2023-01-25 doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221380
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In view of the uncertain factors of natural inflow and electricity price during participating in bilateral transactions at different time scales for cascade hydropower plants, there are problems of market share determination, water resources utilization and profit risk since electricity allocated irrationally. Therefore, this paper presented a risk-based optimal combination model of medium- and long-term contract electricity for cascade hydropower stations. To realize the goal of the minimum profit risk under a given confidence, the monthly inflow process was randomly generated by annual inflow data. Three electricity price functions were fitted by different proportions of hydropower stations in the market. The combination of power output and contract electricity of cascade hydropower plants were solved by the loop-Iteration method of hybrid progressive optimization with successive approximation method. The model was demonstrated using the hydropower plants in the southwest region. The results show that proposed model can determine the declaration strategy between monthly and annual bilateral contract electricity, and reduce the profit risk. It can provide reliable basis for bilateral transactions at different time scales of cascade hydropower plants.

electricity market  /  reservoir dispatch  /  declaration strategy  /  electricity price simulation  /  profit risk
Zhen-kai HAO, Xiong CHENG, Hao ZHONG, Wen-wu LI. Risk-based Optimal Combination Model of Medium and Long-term Contract Electricity for Cascade Hydropower Stations[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2023 , 41 (1) : 82 -86 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221380
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doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221380
  • Receive Date：2022-07-06
  • Online Date：2026-01-28
  • Published：2023-01-25
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History
  • Received：2022-07-06
  • Revised：2022-08-09
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Affiliations
    a.College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443000, China
    b.Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory for Operation and Control of Cascaded Hydropower Stations and Renewable Energy, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443000, China
    c.College of Hydraulic & Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443000, China
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/sdnykx/EN/10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221380
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