A CVMD-GRU-DenseNet model for short-term load forecasting based on a decomposition-prediction-reconstruction framework is proposed to aim at the nonlinear and multi-period characteristics of power load time series. In the decomposition stage, the optimal decomposition number of VMD is determined according to the correlation entropy between subsequences to improve the decomposition quality. In the prediction stage, the input features are selected according to the characteristics of each sub-sequence. The GRU neural network and the DenseNet model are employed to forecast the regular low-frequency and highly random high-frequency components, respectively. Finally, the prediction results for each element are reconstructed into a load prediction curve. The short-term load forecasting results of four seasons for a city in Hubei Province show that the proposed method can effectively improve forecasting accuracy and has strong generalization ability.
| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |