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Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on CVMD-GRU-DenseNet Hybrid Model
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Ke ZHANG1, Dan LI1, Guang-fan SUN1, 2, Ya TAN1, 2, Shuai HE1, 2
Water Resources and Power | 2023, 41(1) : 207 - 211
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Water Resources and Power | 2023, 41(1): 207-211
ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING
Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on CVMD-GRU-DenseNet Hybrid Model
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Ke ZHANG1, Dan LI1, Guang-fan SUN1, 2, Ya TAN1, 2, Shuai HE1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1.College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China
  • 2.Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for New Energy Microgrid, Yichang 443002, China
Published: 2023-01-25 doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221985
Outline
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A CVMD-GRU-DenseNet model for short-term load forecasting based on a decomposition-prediction-reconstruction framework is proposed to aim at the nonlinear and multi-period characteristics of power load time series. In the decomposition stage, the optimal decomposition number of VMD is determined according to the correlation entropy between subsequences to improve the decomposition quality. In the prediction stage, the input features are selected according to the characteristics of each sub-sequence. The GRU neural network and the DenseNet model are employed to forecast the regular low-frequency and highly random high-frequency components, respectively. Finally, the prediction results for each element are reconstructed into a load prediction curve. The short-term load forecasting results of four seasons for a city in Hubei Province show that the proposed method can effectively improve forecasting accuracy and has strong generalization ability.

short-term load forecasting  /  variational modal decomposition  /  conrrentropy  /  gated recurrent units  /  densely connected convolution networks
Ke ZHANG, Dan LI, Guang-fan SUN, Ya TAN, Shuai HE. Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on CVMD-GRU-DenseNet Hybrid Model[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2023 , 41 (1) : 207 -211 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221985
Year 2023 volume 41 Issue 1
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Article Info
doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221985
  • Receive Date:2022-09-23
  • Online Date:2026-01-28
  • Published:2023-01-25
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  • Received:2022-09-23
  • Revised:2022-10-17
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Affiliations
    1.College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China
    2.Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for New Energy Microgrid, Yichang 443002, China
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红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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