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Calculation of Probable Maximum Flood in Changing Environment
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Tian LIU1, Zhong-min LIANG2, Lu-yi JIN3, Shi-wu WANG1, Jin-hua WEN1, He-long WANG1
Water Resources and Power | 2023, 41(1) : 68 - 72
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Water Resources and Power | 2023, 41(1): 68-72
• HYDROLOGICAL FORECAST AND OPTIMAL SCHEDULING •
Calculation of Probable Maximum Flood in Changing Environment
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Tian LIU1, Zhong-min LIANG2, Lu-yi JIN3, Shi-wu WANG1, Jin-hua WEN1, He-long WANG1
Affiliations
  • 1.Zhejiang Institute of Hydraulics & Estuary (Zhejiang Institute of Marine Planning and Design), Hangzhou 310020, China
  • 2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
  • 3.Zhejiang Water Conservancy Information & Publicity Center, Hangzhou 310009, China
Published: 2023-01-25 doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20220051
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Under the influence of climate change and land use/land cover (LULC) change, the combined influence of multiple factors has significantly increased the difficulty of probable maximum flood (PMF) estimation. A PMF estimation framework was proposed, integrating post-processing of climate model results, probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimation and future LULC change setting under climate change scenarios, impact analysis of base flow/antecedent rainfall, and similarity-based PMP spatio-temporal distribution. This new framwork was applied to the Upper Nujiang River Basin. The results show that the uncertainty of base flow/antecedent rainfall and PMP spatio-temporal distribution are important factors affecting PMF for basins, and the dual-drive of climate change and LULC change has a greater impact on PMF, and the amplitude of change increases with the degree of change.

probable maximum flood  /  probable maximum precipitation  /  climate change  /  land use/land cover change  /  base flow/antecedent rainfall  /  upper Nujiang River Basin
Tian LIU, Zhong-min LIANG, Lu-yi JIN, Shi-wu WANG, Jin-hua WEN, He-long WANG. Calculation of Probable Maximum Flood in Changing Environment[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2023 , 41 (1) : 68 -72 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20220051
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Article Info
doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20220051
  • Receive Date：2022-01-07
  • Online Date：2026-01-28
  • Published：2023-01-25
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History
  • Received：2022-01-07
  • Revised：2022-04-12
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Affiliations
    1.Zhejiang Institute of Hydraulics & Estuary (Zhejiang Institute of Marine Planning and Design), Hangzhou 310020, China
    2.College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    3.Zhejiang Water Conservancy Information & Publicity Center, Hangzhou 310009, China
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/sdnykx/EN/10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20220051
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