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Prediction of Bidding Quotation Distribution for Water Conservancy Projects Based on Bayesian-MCMC Algorithm
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Xu-min WANG1, Shun-chao ZHENG1, 2
Water Resources and Power | 2023, 41(9) : 155 - 158
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Water Resources and Power | 2023, 41(9): 155-158
• WATER CONSERVANCY AND HYDROPOWER ENGINEERING •
Prediction of Bidding Quotation Distribution for Water Conservancy Projects Based on Bayesian-MCMC Algorithm
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Xu-min WANG1, Shun-chao ZHENG1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1.College of Civil Engineering and Environment, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan 430068, China
  • 2.China Construction Third Engineering Bureau Group South China Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510623, China
Published: 2023-09-25 doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222504
Outline
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Bidding is the main way for a hydraulic engineering contractor to obtain a project, and the level of the bid price directly affects whether the contractor can obtain its construction right. Before bidding, predicting the distribution of the bid price of the proposed hydraulic engineering can optimize the formulation of its own quotation. A global optimization Bayesian-MCMC algorithm was used to predict the Beta distribution parameters. Bidding behavior of contractor was simulated by numeric analysis. The algorithm does not need to consider the conjugate of the prior distribution and likelihood function in Bayesian estimation. The numerical simulation results show that the Bayesian-MCMC algorithm requires less data for simulation and has better prediction effect than the traditional moment estimation method.

distribution of bidding  /  Bayesian-MCMC algorithm  /  Beta distribution  /  numerical simulation  /  forecast
Xu-min WANG, Shun-chao ZHENG. Prediction of Bidding Quotation Distribution for Water Conservancy Projects Based on Bayesian-MCMC Algorithm[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2023 , 41 (9) : 155 -158 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222504
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Year 2023 volume 41 Issue 9
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Article Info
doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222504
  • Receive Date：2022-10-30
  • Online Date：2026-01-28
  • Published：2023-09-25
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History
  • Received：2022-10-30
  • Revised：2022-12-13
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Affiliations
    1.College of Civil Engineering and Environment, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan 430068, China
    2.China Construction Third Engineering Bureau Group South China Co., Ltd., Guangzhou 510623, China
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/sdnykx/EN/10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20222504
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