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Under the situation of "abundant and dry electricity supply" in Sichuan Province, affected by complex market environment factors and intensified power supply competition, accurate prediction of power generation plan is the key to optimizing the power generation mode of hydropower in dry periods in the basin. This paper analyzed the power supply capacity of the main grid, new energy power, power regulation capacity of the national power grid, outsourcing power transmission capacity and power generation capacity of the provincial hydropower and thermal power, respectively, and established a forecasting method for the generation plan of the cascade hydropower stations in the Dadu River basin. The results show that the prediction accuracy of power supply in main grid is 91.8%, and the prediction accuracy of wind and solar power generation is 87.4%. The prediction accuracy of the medium and long-term overall power generation plan of the hydropower station belonging to Guoneng Dadu River Basin Hydropower Development Co., Ltd. is 90.5%. The model can effectively predict the electricity quantity of each power source and calculate the medium and long-term power generation plan of the cascade hydropower stations in the Dadu River basin, and intelligently generate the fluctuation process under different working conditions based on the prediction results, which provides technical support for the scientific dispatching and operation of the cascade hydropower stations.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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