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Analysis of Nonstationary Standardized Precipitation Index in Yunnan Province Based on GAMLSS Model
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Hao CHEN1, Xiao-lin ZHANG1, Cai-xia HU1, Yan-min ZHANG2, Chang CHEN1, Qian-jin DONG3
Water Resources and Power | 2023, 41(4) : 9 - 12
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Water Resources and Power | 2023, 41(4): 9-12
• HYDROLOGY, WATER RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT •
Analysis of Nonstationary Standardized Precipitation Index in Yunnan Province Based on GAMLSS Model
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Hao CHEN1, Xiao-lin ZHANG1, Cai-xia HU1, Yan-min ZHANG2, Chang CHEN1, Qian-jin DONG3
Affiliations
  • 1.Pearl River Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Center, Guangzhou 510370, China
  • 2.CEWUD Group Company Limited, Wuhan 430070, China
  • 3.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
Published: 2023-04-25 doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221327
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Drought index is crucial to the study of drought. With the influence of climate change and human activities, the frequency distribution of hydrological time series changes with time, so the nonstationary of drought index needs to be considered. The standardized precipitation index (SSPI) considers that the precipitation obeys the Gamma distribution, the corresponding distribution function parameters are usually stationary and invariable. The actual distribution function parameters have a certain correlation with the time series. Therefore, based on the GAMLSS model, the nonstationary Gamma distribution model of precipitation series was constructed with time series as covariate. The nonstationary standardized precipitation index NNSPI was calculated. Taking Yunnan Province as an example, the monthly NNSPI and SSPI during 1960 to 2019 were calculated respectively. Comparing the two indices, it is found that the overall trend of drought recognition results of the two indices is similar. However, in 1960~1985, the number and grade of droughts identified by NNSPI were stronger than those identified by SSPI, and the two were similar in 1986~2005. In 2006~2019, the number and grade of droughts identified by SSPI gradually exceeded those identified by SSPI. Further analysis shows that the NNSPI with considering the time-varying distribution function parameters can more accurately reflect the actual drought situation.

drought Index  /  NNSPI  /  GAMLSS model  /  Yunnan Province
Hao CHEN, Xiao-lin ZHANG, Cai-xia HU, Yan-min ZHANG, Chang CHEN, Qian-jin DONG. Analysis of Nonstationary Standardized Precipitation Index in Yunnan Province Based on GAMLSS Model[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2023 , 41 (4) : 9 -12 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221327
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Year 2023 volume 41 Issue 4
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Article Info
doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221327
  • Receive Date：2022-06-28
  • Online Date：2026-01-27
  • Published：2023-04-25
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History
  • Received：2022-06-28
  • Revised：2022-08-01
Funding
Affiliations
    1.Pearl River Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Center, Guangzhou 510370, China
    2.CEWUD Group Company Limited, Wuhan 430070, China
    3.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/sdnykx/EN/10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2023.20221327
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Family		 属数
Number of
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Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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