PDF
Full
Outline
Aiming at the problems of difficult modeling, low prediction accuracy and poor adaptability of the operation trend prediction of cascade pumping station units under the process of multi-factor participation, this study took Yanhuanding Yellow River Project in Ningxia as the research object, introduced the time series analysis method, and put forward the operation trend prediction method of pumping station units based on ARIMA and SVM combination model. The energy consumption and average load in the operation technical parameters of the unit were selected as the test samples. The ARIMA model was used to linearly fit the processed data, and the SVM model was used to predict the residual error to compensate for the nonlinear change in the operation of the unit. The prediction results of the combination model were obtained by combining the two prediction results. The results show that the optimal models are ARIMA (1, 1, 3) and ARIMA (2, 1, 1), and the optimal parameters of SVM model are c=38, g=0.06 and c=68, g=0.18, respectively. The goodness of fit of the combined model for the test samples were 0.999 2 and 0.998 4, RRMSE were 1.67×10-5 and 3.9×10-8, the MMAPE were 0.036 1 % and 0.074 7 %, indicating that the combined model has high accuracy and good effect in predicting the operation trend of pumping stations. ARIMA-SVM combination model can provide a theoretical basis for the optimization and upgrading of pumping station unit operation condition monitoring system.
PDF
62
14
| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
关闭全屏
No. 86 Xueyuan South Road, Haidian District, Beijing
010-62199257
qkjq@cast.org.cn
Copyright © 2025 China Association for Science and Technology. All rights reserved. For all open access content, the relevant licensing terms apply.
Sponsored by the Office of the Leading Group for Cybersecurity and Informatization of CAST, and supported by Science and Technology Review Publishing House
