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Drought prediction is an important non-engineering measure to improve drought prevention and resistance. This paper firstly evaluated the ability of multi-scalar standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SSPEI) to identify drought events in Henan Province. Then a drought prediction model based on particle swarm algorithm optimized extreme learning machine (PSO-ELM) was constructed, which used SSPEI as model outputs and major drought-causing climate system indices selected by Information Changing Rate and Conditional Mutual Information-Based Input Feature Selection Method (ICR-CMIFS) as model inputs. The applicability of the PSO-ELM model in drought prediction in Henan Province was verified by comparing the drought prediction results of this model with standard extreme learning machine (ELM) and differential evolutionary algorithm optimized extreme learning machine (DE-ELM) models. The results show that the SSPEI-3 can effectively identify specific drought events in Henan Province and reflect the drought situation in Henan Province accurately in terms of time and space; The main drought-causing climate system indices in Henan Province screened by ICR-CMIFS are the western Pacific paratlantic area index and the NINO index; The PSO-ELM model can predict drought in Henan Province accurately, and the prediction accuracy is better than that of the DE-ELM model and standard ELM model, which has better applicability in drought prediction of Henan Province.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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