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Permeability Coefficient Estimation Model of Karst Media Based on Interpretable Machine Learning
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Hong-xing LI1, Wei BAI1, Ao LI2a, Yan-na YANG2a, 2b, Zhi-zheng WANG1
Water Resources and Power | 2025, 43(9) : 69 - 72
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Water Resources and Power | 2025, 43(9): 69-72
Permeability Coefficient Estimation Model of Karst Media Based on Interpretable Machine Learning
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Hong-xing LI1, Wei BAI1, Ao LI2a, Yan-na YANG2a, 2b, Zhi-zheng WANG1
Affiliations
  • 1.Yangtze River Three Gorges Survey and Research Institute Company Limited (Wuhan), Wuhan 430073, China
  • 2a.Department of Groundwater Science and Engineering, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
  • 2b.State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironmental Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
Published: 2025-09-25 doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2025.20242020
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The permeability of karst medium is affected by multiple factors such as the geological characteristics of soluble rocks, the degree of karst development, and the fluid properties. The permeability coefficient estimation model of fractured rock mass is difficult to reflect the complexity of karst development, which makes it poorly applicable. Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regression (SVR), CatBoost machine learning algorithm combined with Bayesian optimization algorithm were used to construct the permeability coefficient estimation model of karst media. The root mean square error (RRMSE), mean square error (MMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were used to verify the evaluation accuracy of the estimation model. The SHAP algorithm was used to analyze the dominant influencing factors of the permeability coefficient of karst media in machine learning model, and the influence of each influencing factor on the permeability coefficient of karst medium was clarified. The results show that the RRMSE of the optimized SVR model is 0.128 8, MMSE is 0.016 6 and R2 is 0.74, which are better than the random forest and CatBoost models, and can better estimate the permeability coefficient of karst media. The SHAP diagram revealed that there were obvious differences in the permeability coefficient of karst media between different eigenvalues of each dominant factor, and the karst rate (BK), depth (Z) and filling content (AFC) of the borehole line were the main influencing factors of the permeability coefficient of karst media, and had a significant impact on the permeability coefficient of karst media. The SVR model has high estimation accuracy and strong interpretability, which provides a certain reference value for engineering applications in karst areas.

random forest  /  support vector regression  /  CatBoost  /  karst media  /  permeability coefficient estimation
Hong-xing LI, Wei BAI, Ao LI, Yan-na YANG, Zhi-zheng WANG. Permeability Coefficient Estimation Model of Karst Media Based on Interpretable Machine Learning[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2025 , 43 (9) : 69 -72 . DOI: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2025.20242020
Year 2025 volume 43 Issue 9
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doi: 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2025.20242020
  • Receive Date:2024-10-28
  • Online Date:2025-12-16
  • Published:2025-09-25
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History
  • Received:2024-10-28
  • Revised:2024-11-29
Affiliations
    1.Yangtze River Three Gorges Survey and Research Institute Company Limited (Wuhan), Wuhan 430073, China
    2a.Department of Groundwater Science and Engineering, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
    2b.State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironmental Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
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Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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