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To solve the problem of decreasing prediction accuracy caused by nonlinear runoff sequence and instability of single prediction model, this paper proposes a "selection-combination-correction" modeling strategy based on the "decomposition-prediction" model. Firstly, five models including DNN, SVM, LSTM, TCN, and GBRT are used to establish 15 coupled models based on EMD, CEEMDAN, and VMD, and the models are selected. Then, the selected model is used as the base model, and the predicted results of each period of the base model are processed and input into a multi-layer perceptron to construct a new combination model. A residual correction equation is constructed for the test period of the combination model to further improve the prediction accuracy. Finally, the method is applied to the test studies of Huaxian Station in Weihe River Basin and Yangxian Station in Hanjiang River Basin. The results show that the combination model constructed by the multi-layer perceptron has higher prediction accuracy than the single model, and can integrate the advantages of other models to improve the model's generalization ability. The model with residual correction technology is superior to the combination model in all aspects, especially in the fitting of peak discharge, further improving the prediction accuracy.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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