The long-term prediction of concrete dam deformation is an important requirement for maintaining its structural integrity during actual operation. To improve the accuracy of long-term deformation prediction of concrete, a long-term dam deformation prediction model based on multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and ecoder-decoder (Ecoder-Decoder) architecture, MLP-Ecoder-Decoder (MED), was constructed. This model captured the long-term dependence of dam deformation and environmental loads through a deep auto-correlation (Deep-Auto-Correlation) mechanism, and used time series decomposition and deep auto-correlation mechanism for multi-step deformation prediction. The model was used to predict the deformation of a 250 m height arch dam in Qinghai Province under complex environmental conditions. The results show that the MED model effectively improves the prediction accuracy and has a strong advantage in extracting long-term time features.

concrete dam  /  long-term deformation prediction  /  multilayer perceptron  /  deep learning  /  long-term forecast  /  feature extraction