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Predicting risks in later diversion stages is essential for the scientific evaluation of initial impoundment schemes for hydropower stations. Considering the gradual development process from dam overtopping to the failure of the diversion system, taking the later diversion systems of the upstream existing and downstream under-construction power stations as the research objects, a later diversion risk model for cascade power stations based on level sets is established, and the risk is expressed in the form of interval numbers. Based on the prospect theory, the initial impoundment scheme of the cascade power stations is evaluated by taking risk loss, relative storage reservoir power generation benefits and storage duration as the indicators. Finally, taking two adjacent under-construction power stations in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River as an example, the results show that when the level sets change from 0 to 1, the equivalent recurrence interval corresponding to the later diversion risk interval of the original impoundment scheme meets the flood design standard with a high safety margin. The staged storage time can be advanced by 40 days, which provides a reference for the safety and economy of advanced impoundment.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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