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In order to solve the problem of inaccurate calculation of index weights, subjectivity and uncertainty of index assessment in the risk assessment process, this study aims to propose a scientific and reasonable centralized traffic control (CTC) system risk assessment method.
First, system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) is used to conduct risk analysis on the CTC system and constructs risk assessment indexes based on this analysis. Then, to enhance the accuracy of weight calculation, the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP), fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (FDEMATEL) and entropy weight method are employed to calculate the subjective weight, relative weight and objective weight of each index. These three types of weights are combined using game theory to obtain the combined weight for each index. To reduce subjectivity and uncertainty in the assessment process, the backward cloud generator method is utilized to obtain the numerical character (NC) of the cloud model for each index. The NCs of the indexes are then weighted to derive the comprehensive cloud for risk assessment of the CTC system. This cloud model is used to obtain the CTC system's comprehensive risk assessment. The model's similarity measurement method gauges the likeness between the comprehensive risk assessment cloud and the risk standard cloud. Finally, this process yields the risk assessment results for the CTC system.
The cloud model can handle the subjectivity and fuzziness in the risk assessment process well. The cloud model-based risk assessment method was applied to the CTC system risk assessment of a railway group and achieved good results.
This study provides a cloud model-based method for risk assessment of CTC systems, which accurately calculates the weight of risk indexes and uses cloud models to reduce uncertainty and subjectivity in the assessment, achieving effective risk assessment of CTC systems. It can provide a reference and theoretical basis for risk management of the CTC system.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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