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The rapid development of new energy vehicles has dramatically increased the demand for battery materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese. To assess the supply risks of these resources, the demand for battery materials in China's new energy passenger vehicles from 2023 to 2050 was predicted using the Gompertz curve model and material flow analysis, under two different scenarios of battery technology development. The results indicate that by 2050, under the lithium iron phosphate route (LFPR), the demand for lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese will be 238, 169, 362, 158 kilotons, respectively. Under the nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) lithium battery route, the estimated demands will reach 242, 201, 1 084, 187 kilotons, respectively. Recycled lithium, cobalt and nickel in 2050 are expected to meet at least 86.5%, 93.5% and 65.8% of their annual demand, respectively. Given the current lack of comprehensive laws and regulations for waste battery recycling in China, it is essential to develop relevant standards.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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