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Full-field petroleum production forecasting: Is deep learning all you need?
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Leonardo Kubota*, Rafael dos Santos Gioria
Petroleum Research | 2026, 11(3) : 743 - 760
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Petroleum Research | 2026, 11(3): 743-760
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Full-field petroleum production forecasting: Is deep learning all you need?
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Leonardo Kubota*, Rafael dos Santos Gioria
Affiliations
  • Universidade de São Paulo Escola Politécnica, Brazil
Published: 2026-09-10 doi: 10.1016/j.ptlrs.2026.01.007
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We investigate full-field petroleum production forecasting using machine learning. A data-driven proxy model that predicts field-scale production under various operational scenarios is proposed. It offers an alternative to time-consuming numerical simulators for assisting operational oilfield management decisions like designing waterflooding schedules and quantifying production loss caused by schedule delays. Its accuracy is validated with real-world datasets. Beyond its practical application, we leverage the proposed workflow to conduct a systematic comparison of several machine learning and deep learning algorithms using four datasets and three forecast horizons. Such critical and systematic analysis is long overdue and seems to be extremely rare in related works, which consistently favor increasingly intricate neural networks, despite the presence of relatively limited and sparse datasets, low-dimensional input variables and the existence of well-defined physical laws to guide input selection. Our comparative study suggests deep learning is an overkill in the context of full-field production forecasts, without any tangible benefits in terms of accuracy. Kernel-based models consistently outperform neural-based architectures in this multi-dimensional analysis. In addition, we find evidence that algorithmic generalization in the full-field context seems to be more influenced by the spatial density of production data than by dataset size. The data-driven proxy model and the investigative findings of this work can help engineers apply machine learning to petroleum production forecasting. On a broader scale, our results endorse the Green AI paradigm, which advocates for the use of compact architectures that deliver good accuracy with a low computational cost.

Machine learning  /  Oilfield management  /  Data-driven proxy model  /  Oil production forecast  /  Green AI  /  Volve
Leonardo Kubota, Rafael dos Santos Gioria. Full-field petroleum production forecasting: Is deep learning all you need?[J]. Petroleum Research, 2026 , 11 (3) : 743 -760 . DOI: 10.1016/j.ptlrs.2026.01.007
Year 2026 volume 11 Issue 3
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11
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Article Info
doi: 10.1016/j.ptlrs.2026.01.007
  • Receive Date:2025-05-25
  • Online Date:2026-10-14
  • Published:2026-09-10
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History
  • Received:2025-05-25
  • Revised:2026-01-09
  • Accepted:2026-01-14
Affiliations
    Universidade de São Paulo Escola Politécnica, Brazil

Corresponding:

* Av Prof. Mello Moraes 2231, 05508-030, Sao Paulo, Brazil. E-mail address: (L. Kubota).
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
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Number of
genus
种数
Number of
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Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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