To understand the climate change during the growth period of winter wheat in dryland areas of Xinjiang and its response to production potential, monthly meteorological data from 11 weather stations from 1961 to 2020 were utilized. The Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) model was selected to calculate the production potential of winter wheat in the dryland areas of Xinjiang. Linear propensity estimation, Mann-Kenddall trend test (M-K), and inverse-distance weighting interpolation were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal trends and influencing factors of winter wheat production potential in Xinjiang. The results indicated that from 1961 to 2020, the average temperature, accumulated temperature (≥10 ℃), and precipitation during the growth period of winter wheat in the dryland areas of Xinjiang showed an increasing trend, with changing rates of 0.41 ℃·per decade, 74.05 ℃·per decade, and 9.82 mm·per decade, respectively. Sunshine duration showed a decreasing trend, with a decrease rate of 23.32 h·per decade. Spatially, the Ili River Valley region had the highest average temperature and precipitation during the growth period of winter wheat, while the Tacheng-Emin Basin and the eastern part of Changji Prefecture had the highest accumulated temperature (≥10 ℃) and sunshine duration, respectively. The average temperature and accumulated temperature (≥10 ℃) at each station showed a highly significant (P<0.01) increasing trend, with the Tacheng-Emin Basin having the fastest average growth rate. The eastern part of Changji Prefecture had the fastest average growth rate in precipitation and the fastest decline rate in sunshine duration. The light-temperature production potential and climate production potential of winter wheat showed an increasing trend, with trend rates of 74.54 and 323.79 kg·hm^-2·per decade, respectively. Spatially, the Tacheng-Emin Basin and the Ili River Valley region had the highest light-temperature production potential and climate production potential, respectively. Among them, the Tacheng-Emin Basin had the fastest growth rate in light-temperature production potential, and the eastern part of Changji Prefecture had the fastest growth rate in climate production potential, with average rates of 101.45 and 487.50 kg·hm^-2·per decade, respectively. The light-temperature production potential was significantly positively correlated with temperature and accumulated temperature (≥10 ℃), but significantly negatively correlated with precipitation. The climate production potential was significantly positively correlated with precipitation, but significantly negatively correlated with sunshine duration. About 80% of the research stations showed consistent correlations with the above. In the Ili River Valley region with abundant precipitation, temperature and accumulated temperature (≥10 ℃) were the main factors affecting winter wheat production potential. Therefore, the warming and humidifying climate in the dryland agricultural areas of Xinjiang is conducive to improving the production potential of winter wheat, and under this climate background, future changes in climate resources in Xinjiang will be beneficial for increasing the yield of winter wheat in dryland areas.