收藏切换
Winter Wheat Yield Prediction in Northern Henan Province Based on CNN-LSTM Model
收藏切换
Jianhua QU, Tingting AN, Junjie YAN, Qianrong SHEN
Journal of Triticeae Crops | 2025, 45(12) : 1699 - 1710
Less
收藏切换
Journal of Triticeae Crops | 2025, 45(12): 1699-1710
• Physiology, Ecology and Cultivation •
Winter Wheat Yield Prediction in Northern Henan Province Based on CNN-LSTM Model
Full
Jianhua QU, Tingting AN, Junjie YAN, Qianrong SHEN
Affiliations
  • Beijing Huayun shinetek Technologies Co. LTO., China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Published: 2025-12-15 doi: 10.7606/j.issn.1009-1041.2025.12.14
Outline
收藏切换

To explore the feasibility of using remote sensing technology and deep learning methods to achieve early and accurate prediction of winter wheat yield on a large scale, the northern Henan region of China was taken as the research area. Using the normalized difference vegetation index, temperature, sunshine hours, precipitation and county-level yield during the period from re-greening to maturity of winter wheat from 2013 to 2022 as characteristic parameters. The Long Short-term memory (LSTM)-Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) was used to estimate the winter wheat yield in the northern Henan region. By training the CNN-LSTM yield estimation models at different growth stages one by one, their early yield estimation ability was compared. The results showed that the CNN-LSTM yield estimation model in re-greening-maturity stages had relatively strong robustness. The average coefficient of determination (R2) in the five-fold cross-validation was 0.86, and the average root mean square error (RMSE) was 402.76 kg·hm-2. There was a significant improvement in the yield estimation accuracy compared with the corresponding LSTM model, with the average R2 increased by 0.18, and the average RMSE decreased by 188.05 kg·hm-2. The CNN-LSTM yield estimation model in re-greening-maturity stages was a model with high stability and strong generalization ability. The R2, RMSE, and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for yield estimation of the 2022 test set were 0.91, 337.25 kg·hm-2, and 4.25%, respectively. Among the 32 counties (districts) in northern Henan, 75% of them had a relative error less than 5% in yield prediction, of which 21.875% had a relative error of 5% to 10% in yield prediction, and only one county (district) in Linzhou City had a relative error of 15% to 20% in yield prediction. The CNN-LSTM yield estimation model had early yield estimation ability. The R2 and RMSE of the CNN-LSTM yield estimation model during the heading-anthesis stage were 0.83 and 431.98 kg·hm-2, respectively. This model had the ability to predict winter wheat yield one month in advance. Therefore, the CNN-LSTM could be used to establish a stable and accurate winter wheat yield estimation model, thus providing strong support for agricultural decision-making.

Winter wheat  /  CNN  /  LSTM  /  Yield estimation model  /  Northern Henan Province
瞿建华, 安婷婷, 鄢俊洁, 申乾荣. 基于CNN-LSTM模型的豫北地区冬小麦产量预测. 麦类作物学报, 2025 , 45 (12) : 1699 -1710 . DOI: 10.7606/j.issn.1009-1041.2025.12.14
Jianhua QU, Tingting AN, Junjie YAN, Qianrong SHEN. Winter Wheat Yield Prediction in Northern Henan Province Based on CNN-LSTM Model[J]. Journal of Triticeae Crops, 2025 , 45 (12) : 1699 -1710 . DOI: 10.7606/j.issn.1009-1041.2025.12.14
Year 2025 volume 45 Issue 12
119
27
Cite this Article
BibTeX
Article Info
doi: 10.7606/j.issn.1009-1041.2025.12.14
  • Receive Date:2024-12-23
  • Online Date:2026-09-18
  • Published:2025-12-15
Article Data
Affiliations
History
  • Received:2024-12-23
  • Revised:2025-02-08
Funding
Affiliations
    Beijing Huayun shinetek Technologies Co. LTO., China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
References
Share
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/mlzwxb/EN/10.7606/j.issn.1009-1041.2025.12.14
Share to
QR

Scan QR to access full text

Cite this article
BibTeX
Citations
表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
关闭全屏
  • BibTeX
  • EndNote
  • RefWorks
  • TxT