Full
Outline
To analyze the differences in the disease burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) between China and the global population based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2023, predict future incidence trends in China, and provide a basis for formulating prevention and control strategies.
Data on BPH incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from 1990 to 2023 in China and 204 global regions were extracted from GBD 2023. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used to evaluate the trends of disease burden. Spatiotemporal variation characteristics were decomposed using an age-period-cohort model, and a Bayesian APC model was employed to predict BPH incidence in China from 2024 to 2048.
In 2023, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, and YLDs were increased by 138.02%, 155.87%, and 154.05%, respectively, when compared with the values in 1990. However, the age-standardized incidence rate, prevalence rate, and YLDs rate showed decreasing trends. In China, BPH incidence reached a peak in the aged 75~79 group, while the prevalence and YLDs remained quite high in the 70~95+ age group. Compared with the global average, the decline in age-standardized rates in China was greater than that in high socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, but the cases in low SDI regions were detected later. The age effect indicated the highest incidence risk in the population aged ≥95 years; the period effect showed a decrease in incidence risk after 2001; The cohort effect revealed that the later the birth year, the lower the risk. From 2024 to 2048, the age-standardized incidence rate of BPH in China will continue to decline, with the projected age-standardized incidence rate in the total population reaching 649.75 per 100 000 by 2048, and the aged 75~79 group remaining the high-burden age group.
The disease burden of BPH in China exhibits dual characteristics: an increase in absolute numbers and a decrease in age-standardized rates. Prevention and control measures have shown initial effectiveness, but the elderly population remains a key target for intervention. Although the incidence will continue to decline in the future, efforts to strengthen health education and resource allocation are needed to address the challenges posed by population aging. Countermeasure: It is advised to strengthen early screening and comorbidity management in the elderly population, optimize medical resource allocation especially in rural primary care settings, implement risk factor prevention and health education for young and middle-aged groups, and establish a long-term prevention and control framework based on predictive data, so as to promote a shift toward “active prevention and precise intervention” in the management of benign prostatic hyperplasia.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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