Full
Outline
To investigate the risk factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy for esophageal and gastric varices in liver cirrhosis patients，to construct a clinical predictive model，and to provide a reference for predicting rebleeding in the early stage，reducing the incidence rate of rebleeding，and improving the clinical outcome of patients.
A retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 194 liver cirrhosis patients with gastroesophageal variceal bleeding who received initial endoscopic therapy at Department of Gastroenterology，The Second People’s Hospital of Lanzhou，from January 1，2021 to May 31，2025. According to whether rebleeding occurred within 1 year after endoscopic therapy，the patients were divided into rebleeding group and non-rebleeding group. The independent-samples t test or the Mann-Whitney U test was used for comparison of continuous data between two groups，and the chi-square test or the Fisher’s exact test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. The patients enrolled were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set at a ratio of 7∶3. In the training set，the Lasso regression analysis was used to obtain optimal predictive variables，and the factors that might affect prognosis were included in the univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses to identify independent predictive factors for rebleeding after endoscopic therapy for esophageal and gastric varices in liver cirrhosis patients，which were used to construct a nomogram model. In both the training set and the validation set，the receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve and the calibration curve were used to assess the discriminatory ability and calibration of the model，and decision curve analysis and the clinical impact curve were used to assess the clinical practicability of the model.
Among the 194 liver cirrhosis patients with esophageal and gastric varices，116 （59.79%） experienced rebleeding within 1 year after endoscopic therapy，with 76 patients in the training set and 40 patients in the validation set. In the training set，the Lasso regression analysis and the univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analyses showed that etiology of liver cirrhosis （odds ratio ［OR］=3.540，95% confidence interval ［CI］：1.520 — 7.150，P<0.001），Child-Pugh class （OR=3.560，95%CI：1.380 — 9.500，P=0.019），severity of esophageal and gastric varices （OR=8.190，95%CI：3.568 — 17.850，P=0.026），and main portal vein diameter （OR=2.954，95%CI：1.349 — 15.030，P=0.044） were independent predictive factors for rebleeding of esophageal and gastric varices in liver cirrhosis patients. A nomogram model was constructed based on the above independent predictive factors. The ROC curve analysis showed that this model had an area under the ROC curve of 0.845 （95%CI：0.778 — 0.912） in the training set and 0.801 （95%CI：0.798 — 0.868） in the validation set. The model had an index of concordance of 0.832 in the training set and 0.820 in the validation set，suggesting that the model had a good discriminatory ability. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed P values of 0.320 and 0.550 in the training set and validation set，respectively，the calibration curve indicated that the predicted probabilities of the nomogram model were in good concordance with the actual observed probabilities，suggesting that the model had good calibration. The decision curve analysis and the clinical impact curve showed that the model had good clinical utility.
The nomogram model based on etiology of liver cirrhosis，Child-Pugh class，severity of esophageal and gastric varices，and main portal vein diameter has a certain clinical value in predicting the risk of rebleeding from esophageal and gastric varices in liver cirrhosis.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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