收藏切换
Ultra-short-term solar irradiance prediction model based on multi-source data and Transformer framework
收藏切换
Suqiong Jiang1, Peide Xu2, Huaiyuan Wang3
Renewable Energy Resources | 2025, 43(12) : 1609 - 1618
Less
收藏切换
Renewable Energy Resources | 2025, 43(12): 1609-1618
Ultra-short-term solar irradiance prediction model based on multi-source data and Transformer framework
Full
Suqiong Jiang1, Peide Xu2, Huaiyuan Wang3
Affiliations
  • 1.School of Electrical Engineering, Fujian College of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Yong'an 366000, China
  • 2.School of Transportation Engineering, Fujian College of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Yong'an 366000, China
  • 3.School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108, China
Published: 2025-12-20
Outline
收藏切换

The intermittence and volatility of photovoltaic power generation threaten the stability of the power grid, and high-precision prediction can provide key support for power system scheduling. Solar irradiance prediction methods based on meteorological data and sky images have been widely studied, but the mining of multi-scale temporal features and sky image features is still very limited, and the correlation between features is not fully utilized. Therefore, this paper proposes an ultra-short-term solar irradiance prediction model based on multi-source data and Transformer framework. First, the long-term and short-term memory neural network-Transformer is used to learn the long-term and short-term temporal variation characteristics of multivariate meteorological sequences. Secondly, the convolution visual Transformer is used to model the global information and local structure of the sky image, and the deep image features are extracted. Finally, a cross-modal feature fusion module based on attention mechanism is proposed, which uses image features to represent temporal features, realizes cross-modal feature fusion, and outputs prediction results by decoder. Experimental results show that the proposed method has better prediction performance than the state-of-the-art methods. Compared with the case of only using meteorological data, the NRMSE of the model is reduced by 7.4% on average. The model significantly improves the prediction accuracy by mining the features of multi-source data (meteorological time series and sky images) and using the cross-modal attention mechanism to effectively mine their correlation.

solar irradiance prediction  /  multi-source data  /  sky image  /  long short-term memory neural network  /  Transformer  /  CvT
蒋素琼, 许培德, 王怀远. 基于多源数据和Transformer框架的超短期太阳辐照度预测模型. 可再生能源, 2025 , 43 (12) : 1609 -1618 .
Suqiong Jiang, Peide Xu, Huaiyuan Wang. Ultra-short-term solar irradiance prediction model based on multi-source data and Transformer framework[J]. Renewable Energy Resources, 2025 , 43 (12) : 1609 -1618 .
Year 2025 volume 43 Issue 12
110
26
Cite this Article
BibTeX
Article Info
  • Receive Date:2025-06-22
  • Online Date:2026-09-24
  • Published:2025-12-20
Article Data
Affiliations
History
  • Received:2025-06-22
Funding
Affiliations
    1.School of Electrical Engineering, Fujian College of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Yong'an 366000, China
    2.School of Transportation Engineering, Fujian College of Water Conservancy and Electric Power, Yong'an 366000, China
    3.School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350108, China
References
Share
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/kzsny/EN/
Share to
QR

Scan QR to access full text

Cite this article
BibTeX
Citations
表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
关闭全屏
  • BibTeX
  • EndNote
  • RefWorks
  • TxT