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Analysis of wind power fluctuation characteristics based on hybrid adaptive kernel density estimation
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Lixin Li1, Xu Tian2, Fei Liu2, Jun Zhang2, Xiangcheng Zhang2, Xin Zhang1, Yuanyuan Li1
Renewable Energy Resources | 2024, 42(7) : 923 - 928
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Renewable Energy Resources | 2024, 42(7): 923-928
Analysis of wind power fluctuation characteristics based on hybrid adaptive kernel density estimation
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Lixin Li1, Xu Tian2, Fei Liu2, Jun Zhang2, Xiangcheng Zhang2, Xin Zhang1, Yuanyuan Li1
Affiliations
  • 1 State Key Laboratory of Grid Security and Energy Conservation (China Electric Power Research Institute) Beijing 100192 China
  • 2 State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute of Qinghai Electric Power Company Xining 810000 China
Published: 2024-07-20
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The analysis and mastery of the inner law of the fluctuation characteristics of wind power output is conducive to improving the prediction accuracy of wind power output, thus guiding the power grid scheduling department to reasonably arrange the power generation plan and improve the economy of system operation. To characterize the probability density distribution of wind power output fluctuations, two adaptive bandwidth kernel density estimation models are developed by modifying the fixed bandwidths obtained from the empirical method and the unbiased crossvalidation method. Then, the above two models are combined and optimized, and finally the probability density distribution model of wind power output fluctuation based on hybrid adaptive kernel density estimation (HAKDE) is established. A variety of probability density distribution models were used to fit the fluctuations of wind power output at different spatial and temporal scales in a province in North China. The results show that the fitting effect of the HAKDE model is the best, which verifies the effectiveness of the HAKDE model.

kernel density estimation  /  wind power  /  fluctuation characteristics  /  probability density distribution  /  multi-temporal scales
Lixin Li, Xu Tian, Fei Liu, Jun Zhang, Xiangcheng Zhang, Xin Zhang, Yuanyuan Li. Analysis of wind power fluctuation characteristics based on hybrid adaptive kernel density estimation[J]. Renewable Energy Resources, 2024 , 42 (7) : 923 -928 .
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Article Info
  • Receive Date：2022-10-31
  • Online Date：2025-07-22
  • Published：2024-07-20
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  • Received：2022-10-31
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Affiliations
    1 State Key Laboratory of Grid Security and Energy Conservation (China Electric Power Research Institute) Beijing 100192 China
    2 State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute of Qinghai Electric Power Company Xining 810000 China
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