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Early Warning Method for Dynamic Roof Hazards in Mines Based on Multi-Point Displacement Data and Dynamically Weighted ARIMA Prediction
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Kaiwen SI1, Hongjie LIU2, Dezhi ZHU1
Mining Research and Development | 2025, 45(7) : 161 - 168
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收藏切换
Mining Research and Development | 2025, 45(7): 161-168
Early Warning Method for Dynamic Roof Hazards in Mines Based on Multi-Point Displacement Data and Dynamically Weighted ARIMA Prediction
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Kaiwen SI1, Hongjie LIU2, Dezhi ZHU1
Affiliations
  • 1.Jinneng Holding Equipment Manufacturing Group Co., Ltd., Jincheng, Shanxi 048006, China
  • 2.School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China
Published: 2025-07-25
Outline
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Monitoring and early warning of dynamic roof hazards in mines is crucial for mining production and personnel safety. Traditional multi-point displacement monitoring and early warning methods rely on a single absolute threshold based on monitoring data, resulting in poor sensitivity and reliability of the warning. In response to this issue, a new early warning method for dynamic roof hazards in mines was proposed based on multi-point displacement data and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. In this method, superposition techniques were employed to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio of multi-point displacement time series data, and a graded early warning method combining enhanced windowed waveform characteristic function ratio and kurtosis was introduced, which addressed the inadequacies of traditional threshold warnings. Furthermore, a dynamic weighted parameter ARIMA model was constructed to predict displacement data, enabling the integration of monitoring and prediction data for early warning of dynamic roof hazards in mines. The theoretical testing of this method shows a false alarm rate of 13.3%, with an average error of 15.4% for secondary or higher warning characteristic values. The test results of engineering actual data of kurtosis over two periods show that the warning false alarm rates are 11.8% and 6.7%, respectively, and the average errors of the secondary or higher warning characteristic values are 15.1% and 14.4%, respectively. In summary, the proposed early warning method for dynamic roof hazards in mine has a high application value.

Dynamic roof hazard  /  Early warning of disaster  /  Multi-point displacement  /  ARIMA prediction  /  Displacement monitoring
司凯文, 刘宏杰, 朱德智. 基于多点位移数据和动态加权ARIMA预警矿山顶板动力灾害的研究. 矿业研究与开发, 2025 , 45 (7) : 161 -168 .
Kaiwen SI, Hongjie LIU, Dezhi ZHU. Early Warning Method for Dynamic Roof Hazards in Mines Based on Multi-Point Displacement Data and Dynamically Weighted ARIMA Prediction[J]. Mining Research and Development, 2025 , 45 (7) : 161 -168 .
Year 2025 volume 45 Issue 7
72
32
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  • Receive Date:2024-08-27
  • Online Date:2026-10-28
  • Published:2025-07-25
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  • Received:2024-08-27
Affiliations
    1.Jinneng Holding Equipment Manufacturing Group Co., Ltd., Jincheng, Shanxi 048006, China
    2.School of Resources and Safety Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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