Full
Outline
The typical region of the Yuanma Basin (covering Mayang, Luxi and Yuanling counties) was taken in the research of landslide disaster. Based on the database of detailed survey of geological disasters from 2013 to 2022, landslide events with complete rainfall records were selected for research. Then, significant rainfall factors for landslide, including rainfall on the day of landslide occurrence and during those four days prior to it, and maximum rainfall rate on the occurrence day were selected out by adopting logistic regression analysis, and a logistic regression prediction model for rainfall-induced landslides in the Yuanma Basin was developed and validated by studying representative landslide cases. The research results indicate that the rainfall-induced landslides in the Yuanma Basin is significantly correlated with rainfall on the occurrence day and during those 4 days prior to the occurrence. This confirms that the period including the occurrence day and those 4 days prior to the occurrence is critical for early warning of landslide in this region. A combined rainfall factors, consisting of R0 (daily rainfall on the occurrence day), R1 (rainfall of 1 day before occurrence), R2 (rainfall of 2 days before occurrence) and Rh (maximum rainfall rate on the occurrence day), present optimal significance in statistical analysis. The practical cases have validated that this logistic regression model constructed based on this factor combination has a prediction accuracy of 83%. It is concluded that this model can give a prediction with high precision and is of practical value.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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