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The path mechanism for breaking through the "Valley of Death" of key core technology innovation
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Xiao-bo WU, Yi-yue SHAO, Fu-xin LIN
Studies in Science of Science | 2026, 44(1) : 129 - 140
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Studies in Science of Science | 2026, 44(1): 129-140
• Innovation Explorations •
The path mechanism for breaking through the "Valley of Death" of key core technology innovation
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Xiao-bo WU, Yi-yue SHAO, Fu-xin LIN
Affiliations
  • School of Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
Published: 2026-01-15
Outline
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Accelerating the construction of independent innovation capabilities in core technologies is an imperative requirement in the new context of international scientific and technological competition. Against this backdrop, China's innovation policy planning must transcend the traditional logic of follower catch-up and shift towards a technological strategic perspective of beyond catch-up. It is essential to balance the breakthrough of bottleneck technologies and the forward-looking layout of killer technologies, focusing not only on the autonomy and control of current key industries but also on shaping future technological competitive advantages.

Focusing on the strategic layout of national innovation policy, this study defining and discussing the scientific connotations and development patterns of killer technologies from the perspective of beyond catch-up, and emphasizes the strategic significance of killer technologies in international competition, which compensates for the bias of existing research that predominantly emphasize bottleneck technologies. Killer technologies refer to "asymmetrical technologies" mastered by technological entities at the high end of the innovation chain, which are difficult for other entities to imitate and surpass. Killer technologies are primary innovation outcomes formed within an endogenous innovation chain, fundamentally different from bottleneck technologies that rely on external sources of innovation. In the process of breaking through bottleneck technologies, latecomers who improve and expand within existing technological paradigms and tracks are prone to falling into the "catch-up trap" of continuous catching up and continuous falling behind.

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the "valley of death" phenomenon in key core technology innovation. On the basis of summarizing and sorting out the patterns of innovation transformation chains for two types of key core technology, the study analyzes the three major innovation breakpoints and constraints of innovation achievement transformation from basic research to application development, to productization, and then to scaling up, which supplements the previous research's insufficient attention to the breakpoints of upstream technology acquisition and downstream technology promotion. The main challenges faced by killer technologies at the stages of technology acquisition, transformation, and promotion are the insufficiency of continuous basic research, goal divergence among multiple entities, and the failure of business model innovation. Bottleneck technologies face the "cold start" paradox of latecomers, the lack of "know-how" in application transformation, and the difficulty of scaling up development at three stages.

Breakthroughs in key core technologies typically require multiple entities to collaborate in complex innovation networks. Focusing on the three types of "valley of death" faced by the two categories of key core technologies, this study systematically elaborates the breakthrough path mechanisms for killer technologies and bottleneck technologies based on the "capability enhancement - resource allocation - institutional environment" logical framework, aiming to provide new theoretical perspectives and practical guidance for China's innovation policy layout. Capacity building of entities is key to breakthroughs in key core technologies, the optimization of resource allocation aims to enhance the entity capabilities, and reasonable and effective institutional arrangements support and safeguard the effective allocation of resources. These three types of innovation breakthrough elements interact and collaborate effectively in the process of breaking through key core technologies.

key core technologies  /  killer technologies  /  bottleneck technologies  /  valley of death  /  beyond catch-up
吴晓波, 邵贻玥, 林福鑫. 突破关键核心技术创新“死亡之谷”的路径机制. 科学学研究, 2026 , 44 (1) : 129 -140 .
Xiao-bo WU, Yi-yue SHAO, Fu-xin LIN. The path mechanism for breaking through the "Valley of Death" of key core technology innovation[J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2026 , 44 (1) : 129 -140 .
Year 2026 volume 44 Issue 1
72
34
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  • Receive Date:2024-09-27
  • Online Date:2026-10-13
  • Published:2026-01-15
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  • Received:2024-09-27
  • Revised:2024-11-14
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    School of Management, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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