Amid growing global technological competition, understanding the reasoning behind U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) policy is crucial for evaluating its strategic impact and potential risks for China. Building on the theoretical framework of technological nationalism, this study introduces a four-dimensional analytical model covering national technological strategic positioning, the establishment of technological sovereignty, the connection between technology and national security, and the development of global technological discourse power.

Using the Dynamic Topic Model (DTM), we analyze 306 U.S. AI policy documents issued from 2015 to 2025 to identify key thematic trends and map the evolving policy emphasis. Complemented by keyword co-occurrence analysis, the study examines the interdependencies among policy themes to reveal how technological nationalism has become structurally embedded in the United States’ AI policymaking process and how this shapes its external technological stance toward China. The findings demonstrate that U.S. AI policy is characterized by a strong technological nationalist orientation. Domestically, the United States tightly links AI development with national security goals, creating a legitimacy narrative around “national security threats” to justify restrictive technological measures targeting China. Internationally, it promotes governance frameworks infused with American values and fosters alliances with like-minded partners, thereby institutionalizing a bloc-based regime of technological containment.

In response, the study proposes three strategic pathways for China—foundational breakthroughs, standard elevation, and partnership restructuring—aimed at mitigating external technological vulnerabilities and enhancing its strategic autonomy and competitiveness within the global AI landscape. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the geopolitical dimensions of AI governance and offer actionable insights for national technology strategy in an era of renewed techno-political rivalry.