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The spatiotemporal evolution of talent policies and their impact on new quality productive forces in Chinese prefecture-level cities: Based on quantitative analysis of 3308 policy texts from 2002 to 2021
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Yang YE1, Jie XU2, Zhang-long HUANG3, Ze-yi QIAN4
Studies in Science of Science | 2026, 44(2) : 255 - 269
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Studies in Science of Science | 2026, 44(2): 255-269
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The spatiotemporal evolution of talent policies and their impact on new quality productive forces in Chinese prefecture-level cities: Based on quantitative analysis of 3308 policy texts from 2002 to 2021
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Yang YE1, Jie XU2, Zhang-long HUANG3, Ze-yi QIAN4
Affiliations
  • 1 School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
  • 2 School of Public Administration, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China
  • 3 School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
  • 4 Department of Economics, Clark University, Massachusetts 01610, U.S.
Published: 2026-02-15
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Adopting a spatial perspective on talent policies, this paper constructs a quantitative standard for Chinese urban talent policy, and scores 3308 talent policies in 293 prefecture-level cities. On this basis, by using spatial analysis methods, this paper characterizes the spatiotemporal differentiation and evolutionary processes of talent policies at the prefecture-level in China from 2012 to 2021. Meanwhile, this paper designs an evaluation index system for new quality productive forces in cities, and conducts a quantitative study on the relationship between urban talent policies and new quality productive forces. The results show that: (1) The comprehensive scores of talent policies exhibit a southeast-to-northwest gradient, featuring higher scores in the southeast and lower scores in the northwest. Specifically, the eastern region has maintained a high level of scores throughout, while the central region, despite starting from a lower base, has experienced rapid growth. In contrast, the western and northeastern regions have experienced relatively slower improvements. (2) Based on the analysis of urban types from the three dimensions of "policy intensity-policy objective-policy measure", it is evident that cities with simultaneous progress in all three dimensions tend to expand from the coast towards the inland. Additionally, internal polarization is prominent in the western and northeastern regions. (3) The analysis of urban types based on the three dimensions of "policy instrument-policy link- prioritized talent" reveals that the central region exhibits shortcomings in the use of safeguard policy instruments, while the western and northeastern regions lack adequate development policy instruments. The western region faces notable shortcomings in talent retention policies, while the northeastern region exhibits deficiencies in talent cultivation policies. While regions vary in their preferences for talent types, highly educated talents have universally emerged as the primary focus. (4) In practical terms, talent policies significantly enhance the development of new quality productive forces by leveraging the talent agglomeration effect, innovation-driven effect, and industrial upgrading effect, with distinct heterogeneities observed across regions and policy types. The research conclusions can provide decision-making references for local governments to formulate more practical talent policies. The marginal contributions of this paper lie in: Firstly, it innovatively designs a quantitative standard system for prefecture-level talent policies in China, encompassing three dimensions: policy intensity, policy objectives, and policy measures. This system was applied to score 3308 talent policy texts across 293 prefecture-level cities from 2002 to 2021, thereby establishing a panel database (2012-2021) of comprehensive scores and detailed indicators for China's prefecture-level talent policies. This provides comprehensive and robust data support for subsequent research. Secondly, employing spatial analysis methods, the paper systematically characterizes the spatiotemporal evolution of talent policies at the prefecture-level in China. It presents a panoramic view of their gradient distribution pattern, internal regional polarization characteristics, and the trajectory of spatial center shifts, constituting a valuable exploration into the spatial dynamics of nationwide prefecture-level talent policies. Thirdly, it constructs an evaluation index system for urban new quality productive forces and conducts a quantitative study on the relationship between talent policies and new quality productive forces. This research precisely identifies the heterogeneous effects of policies across regions, policy instruments, and policy links, offering new perspectives and evidence for understanding the spatiotemporal evolution and practical effectiveness of talent policies in Chinese cities.

talent policy  /  policy quantification  /  spatiotemporal evolution  /  new quality productive forces
叶杨, 徐洁, 黄章龙, 钱则一. 中国地市级人才政策时空演进与新质生产力——基于2002-2021年3308项政策文本的量化分析. 科学学研究, 2026 , 44 (2) : 255 -269 .
Yang YE, Jie XU, Zhang-long HUANG, Ze-yi QIAN. The spatiotemporal evolution of talent policies and their impact on new quality productive forces in Chinese prefecture-level cities: Based on quantitative analysis of 3308 policy texts from 2002 to 2021[J]. Studies in Science of Science, 2026 , 44 (2) : 255 -269 .
Year 2026 volume 44 Issue 2
94
42
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  • Receive Date:2025-01-27
  • Online Date:2026-10-09
  • Published:2026-02-15
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  • Received:2025-01-27
  • Revised:2025-06-13
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Affiliations
    1 School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China
    2 School of Public Administration, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China
    3 School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    4 Department of Economics, Clark University, Massachusetts 01610, U.S.
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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