Accounting to the goal of achieving the carbon peak by 2030, based on the existing relevant policies, the kaya carbon emission identity, combined with China’s “14th Five-Year Plan” and long-term planning and other relevant policies, the scenario analysis method was used to estimate China’s total carbon emissions in 2030. On the basis of the total amount, taking into account the two principles of fairness and efficiency, entropy method and zero-sum income data Envelopment (ZSG-DEA) were used for empirical testing, and a provincial carbon emission quota allocation scheme under the multi-index system was constructed. The allocation plan that takes into account the two principles of fairness and efficiency is conducive to the establishment of a reasonable cross-regional carbon emission quota allocation mechanism, and has important reference value for promoting China’s cross-provincial collaborative emission reduction strategy, establishing and improving the national carbon trading market, and achieving the goal of carbon peak in 2030.

carbon peak  /  carbon quota  /  the cost of reducing emissions  /  spatial simultaneous model ZSG-DEA model