In order to realize of the Poyang Lake Eco-economic Region's “dual-carbon” goal, carbon emissions was analyzed on energy consumption, and carbon emissions from 2024 to 2035 was predicted using the logistic model. The results showed the the maximum inaccuracies between the carbon emissions predicted by the Logistic model and the actual value from 2011 to 2022 was 9.0%, and the average inaccuracies was 2.43%, which is able to fit the trend of carbon emissions in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Region. The logistic model predicts that carbon emissions in 2035 will reach 23 345.38×10⁴ t. The growth rate of carbon emissions is in a decreasing trend, from 0.85% in 2024 to 0.04% in 2035, and the carbon peak would be basically realized in 2035. The research results are of great significance in promoting the scientific development of carbon emission reduction pathway in Poyang Lake Ecological and Economic Zone.

carbon emission prediction  /  spatio-temporal evolution  /  Logistic model  /  Poyang Lake Eco-economic Region