The causes and future trends of water level variations in Qinghai Lake against the backdrop of climate warming was discussed. Drawing upon meteorological observation data spanning from 1960 to 2023, the impacts of climate warming on key factors within the Qinghai Lake basin was analyzed, including evaporation, runoff, precipitation, and maximum soil frost depth. Employing Bigaussian nonlinear fitting, the water level trends of Qinghai Lake from 2025 to 2035 is predicted. Key findings reveal that as climate warming intensifies, the soil evaporation near Qinghai Lake has increased significantly, and it is the most significantly affected by climate warming (with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.860). Meanwhile, both runoff and precipitation have shown a slow upward trend, while the maximum soil freezing depth has declined. For now, the volume of water consumed by evaporation is less than the total volume of water injected into Qinghai Lake by runoff, precipitation, and permafrost melting. Consequently, this has led to a continuous rise in the water level of Qinghai Lake. Through Bigaussian nonlinear fitting, it is predicted that the water level of Qinghai Lake will continue to rise slowly from 2025 to 2035, reaching 3 198.133 meters by 2035. This research provides a scientific basis for ensuring the safe operation of trains on the Qinghai-Tibet Railway’s section surrounding the lake.

Qinghai Lake  /  rising water level  /  climate warming  /  Pearson correlation coefficient  /  prediction