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Residual life prediction of oil-paper insulation for traction transformers based on hidden Markov model
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Huijuan ZHANG1, Jinping QI1, 2, 3, Hongwei LI1, Xiaoyu LIU1, Daqiang YAN4
Insulating Materials | 2024, 57(3) : 96 - 101
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Insulating Materials | 2024, 57(3): 96-101
• Insulation Technology •
Residual life prediction of oil-paper insulation for traction transformers based on hidden Markov model
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Huijuan ZHANG1, Jinping QI1, 2, 3, Hongwei LI1, Xiaoyu LIU1, Daqiang YAN4
Affiliations
  • 1Mechatronics T&R Institute, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China
  • 2Gansu Provincial Engineering Technology Center for Informatization of Logistics & Transport Equipment, Lanzhou 730070, China
  • 3Gansu Provincial Industry Technology Center of Logistics & Transport Equipment, Lanzhou 730070, China
  • 4China Railway Lanzhou Group Co., Ltd., Lanzhou 730015, China
Published: 2024-03-20 doi: 10.16790/j.cnki.1009-9239.im.2024.03.013
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In order to study the influence of ageing status of oil-paper insulation of EMU on-board traction transformer on its residual life, the dissolved gas content in oil was used as the characteristic parameter to reflect the ageing of oil-paper insulation in this paper. Since the ageing process of oil-paper insulation has dynamic characteristic, a hidden Markov model was established according to the corresponding hidden state and observation state between the ageing status of oil-paper insulation and the characteristic parameters. Firstly, the number of hidden states is determined using Bayesian information criteria, and then the observation sequence is clustered by using the k-Means algorithm. On this basis, the state of the observation sequence is identified by the Viterbi algorithm to determine the ageing state of oil-paper insulation. Finally, the reliability function is determined by combining the proportional risk model. The accuracy of the model is verified according to the online monitoring data of the dissolved gases in the oil of on-board traction transformer of CRH2 EMU, and it is obtained that the remaining life of the oil-paper insulation is basically consistent with the actual life, which can provide theoretical reference for the subsequent development of traction transformer maintenance strategy.

traction transformer  /  hidden Markov model  /  dissolved gas in oil  /  residual life
Huijuan ZHANG, Jinping QI, Hongwei LI, Xiaoyu LIU, Daqiang YAN. Residual life prediction of oil-paper insulation for traction transformers based on hidden Markov model[J]. Insulating Materials, 2024 , 57 (3) : 96 -101 . DOI: 10.16790/j.cnki.1009-9239.im.2024.03.013
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doi: 10.16790/j.cnki.1009-9239.im.2024.03.013
  • Receive Date：2023-05-06
  • Online Date：2025-12-22
  • Published：2024-03-20
Article Data
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History
  • Received：2023-05-06
  • Revised：2023-08-03
Funding
Affiliations
    1Mechatronics T&R Institute, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China
    2Gansu Provincial Engineering Technology Center for Informatization of Logistics & Transport Equipment, Lanzhou 730070, China
    3Gansu Provincial Industry Technology Center of Logistics & Transport Equipment, Lanzhou 730070, China
    4China Railway Lanzhou Group Co., Ltd., Lanzhou 730015, China
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https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/jycl/EN/10.16790/j.cnki.1009-9239.im.2024.03.013
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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