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Climate Policy Uncertainty and Risk Spillover Effects in Carbon, Energy and Financial Markets
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Xiping Wang, Kaicheng Zhou
Journal of Technology Economics | 2026, 45(5) : 13 - 29
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Journal of Technology Economics | 2026, 45(5): 13-29
• Industrial Technology Economics •
Climate Policy Uncertainty and Risk Spillover Effects in Carbon, Energy and Financial Markets
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Xiping Wang, Kaicheng Zhou
Affiliations
  • Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
Published: 2026-05-25 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1002-980X.J25122701
Outline
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Against the backdrop of advancing the "dual carbon" goals and accelerating global climate governance, preventing cross-market risk contagion among carbon, energy, and financial markets induced by climate policy uncertainty is of great significance. A four-dimensional risk linkage analysis framework of "CPU-carbon-energy-finance" was constructed. The quantile vector autoregressive model and frequency domain decomposition method were employed to examine the risk spillover effects of climate policy uncertainty under normal and extreme conditions from both the time and frequency dimensions. The results show that climate policy uncertainty plays a pivotal role in risk transmission and exhibits a pronounced state-dependent characteristic. It acts as a net risk receiver under normal conditions but turns into a net risk transmitter under extreme scenarios, with its impact significantly amplified during the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. This role reversal is closely associated with declining risk appetite, heightened liquidity constraints, and the reshaping of policy expectations. Short-term spillovers consistently dominate the transmission process, reflecting the rapid market response to information. However, medium- and long-term spillovers are markedly intensified under extreme market states, indicating that extreme events can awaken the market's "long-term memory" and lead to cross-period risk contagion. The energy market serves as a critical transmission node. During downturns, coal and natural gas reinforce risk concentration, while during upturns, oil becomes a primary spillover source and strengthens its linkages with the carbon market and commodity futures. The findings provide empirical evidence for constructing a state-dependent risk defense system, optimizing the design of energy transition pathways, and facilitating a smooth energy transition.

climate policy uncertainty  /  carbon market  /  energy market  /  financial market  /  quantile spillover model  /  time-frequency analysis
王喜平, 周楷程. 气候政策不确定性与碳-能源-金融市场的风险溢出效应研究. 技术经济, 2026 , 45 (5) : 13 -29 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1002-980X.J25122701
Xiping Wang, Kaicheng Zhou. Climate Policy Uncertainty and Risk Spillover Effects in Carbon, Energy and Financial Markets[J]. Journal of Technology Economics, 2026 , 45 (5) : 13 -29 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1002-980X.J25122701
Year 2026 volume 45 Issue 5
33
6
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doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1002-980X.J25122701
  • Receive Date:2025-12-27
  • Online Date:2026-10-28
  • Published:2026-05-25
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  • Received:2025-12-27
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    Department of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
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属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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