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Modeling Credit Interest Subsidy Policies for Strategic Emerging Industries: Contrasting Exogenous vs. Endogenous Mechanisms and Profit-Sharing Optimization Based on a DSGE Framework
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Haibo Liu, Zhiqiang Wang
Journal of Technology Economics | 2026, 45(4) : 116 - 136
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Journal of Technology Economics | 2026, 45(4): 116-136
• Youth Exploration •
Modeling Credit Interest Subsidy Policies for Strategic Emerging Industries: Contrasting Exogenous vs. Endogenous Mechanisms and Profit-Sharing Optimization Based on a DSGE Framework
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Haibo Liu, Zhiqiang Wang
Affiliations
  • School of Economics and Management, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, China
Published: 2026-04-25 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1002-980X.J25102314
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Rapid developments in technological innovation and industrial policy practices are observed globally. How credit interest subsidies can more effectively alleviate the financing constraints of strategic emerging industries (SEIs) is recognized as a critical issue in building China's modern industrial system. A profit-sharing mechanism and an endogenous linkage mechanism of credit interest subsidies were innovatively incorporated into a DSGE analytical framework. A DSGE model was constructed to include heterogeneous firm financing constraints and profit-sharing. The differentiated pathways and effects of exogenous versus endogenous credit interest subsidy policy mechanisms were analyzed. It is found that the endogenous subsidy mechanism with dynamic linkage between "interest subsidy and credit scale" can significantly reduce the crowding-out effect of SEI technological progress on traditional industries by triggering an automatic stabilizer function. The necessity of shifting policy design from fixed ratios to precise dynamic adjustments is thus confirmed. An "intensity paradox" is identified in credit interest subsidies, whereby excessive subsidies weaken long-term effectiveness through fiscal negative feedback loops. Quantitative evidence is provided for identifying the optimal intensity boundary for policy effectiveness. The state-owned enterprise profit-sharing mechanism is internalized as a funding source for interest subsidies. A virtuous cycle of "technological progress→profit growth→fiscal revenue increase→subsidy expansion→industrial development→subsidy sustainability" is thereby established. Through phased dynamic adjustments of profit-sharing ratios, the dilemma between short-term incentives and long-term sustainability is effectively resolved. It addresses the "industrial misallocation" and "entity misallocation" contradictions in China's credit allocation, and puts forward policy recommendations to construct a dynamically adjusted profit-sharing mechanism and a linkage mechanism between "interest subsidy and credit scale", providing a solution for optimizing credit allocation, resolving the financing dilemma of strategic emerging industries, and promoting industrial synergy.

strategic emerging industries  /  modern industrial system  /  credit interest subsidies  /  profit sharing  /  DSGE mode L
刘海波, 王智强. 战略性新兴产业信贷贴息政策模拟研究——基于DSGE模型的内外生机制对比与利润分成优化. 技术经济, 2026 , 45 (4) : 116 -136 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1002-980X.J25102314
Haibo Liu, Zhiqiang Wang. Modeling Credit Interest Subsidy Policies for Strategic Emerging Industries: Contrasting Exogenous vs. Endogenous Mechanisms and Profit-Sharing Optimization Based on a DSGE Framework[J]. Journal of Technology Economics, 2026 , 45 (4) : 116 -136 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1002-980X.J25102314
Year 2026 volume 45 Issue 4
35
5
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doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1002-980X.J25102314
  • Receive Date:2025-10-23
  • Online Date:2026-10-28
  • Published:2026-04-25
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  • Received:2025-10-23
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    School of Economics and Management, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
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Number of
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种数
Number of
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Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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