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Causal Inference of Iron Ore Price Fluctuations: Analysis of Influencing Factors and Effects
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Lintai Li, Wei Cui
Journal of Technology Economics | 2024, 43(8) : 36 - 45
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Journal of Technology Economics | 2024, 43(8): 36-45
Industry Technology Economics
Causal Inference of Iron Ore Price Fluctuations: Analysis of Influencing Factors and Effects
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Lintai Li, Wei Cui
Affiliations
  • School of Economics and Management China University of Geosciences (Beijing) Beijing 100083 China
Published: 2024-08-10 doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1002-980X.J24051802
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China's steel industry has a huge demand for imported iron ore and does not have the pricing power for imported iron ore, so there is a high risk in the supply of iron ore. Since there are many factors affecting the price of imported iron ore and they are interrelated, there is still a lack of authoritative research results on the causes of fluctuations in the spot price of imported iron ore. Based on the existing research on the price of imported iron ore, factors such as iron ore supply and demand, transportation costs, pricing models, finance, and economic development were selected as factors affecting the price of iron ore, and determines the relevant representative indicators of each factor. By constructing a Lasso regression model, the main influencing factors of the spot price of imported iron ore and the complex interactive relationship between these factors are clarified, and the influence of each influencing factor is identified by the variance decomposition method. The results show that the Platts iron ore price index, shipping index, US dollar index, and domestic iron ore production are the main factors affecting the spot price of imported iron ore, among which the Platts iron ore price index is the most critical factor. Based on the model results, it puts forward corresponding policy recommendations from the perspectives of strengthening iron ore market supervision and optimizing iron ore transportation costs.

causal analysis  /  iron ore prices  /  lasso regression
Lintai Li, Wei Cui. Causal Inference of Iron Ore Price Fluctuations: Analysis of Influencing Factors and Effects[J]. Journal of Technology Economics, 2024 , 43 (8) : 36 -45 . DOI: 10.12404/j.issn.1002-980X.J24051802
Year 2024 volume 43 Issue 8
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doi: 10.12404/j.issn.1002-980X.J24051802
  • Receive Date:2024-05-18
  • Online Date:2025-07-24
  • Published:2024-08-10
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  • Received:2024-05-18
Affiliations
    School of Economics and Management China University of Geosciences (Beijing) Beijing 100083 China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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