Illex argentinus was a short life cycle species. Its resource abundance is susceptible to changes in the marine environment, especially in its early life history stage. According to the production statistics of the Chinese squid jigging fleet during 2003−2016 in the Southwest Atlantic and the sea surface temperature (SST) of the spawning ground from satellite remote sensing, the correlation analysis method was used to select the featured area representing SST changes during the spawning season (June) of I. argentinus. Based on the assumption that the ratio of optimum SST range to the total area (Ps) of the spawning ground of I. argentinus is positively correlated with the abundance index (catch per fishing unit, CPUE, t/ship), the optimum spawning area and suitable sea water temperature range of I. argentinus were traced back, and a variety of multivariate linear prediction models of abundance index based on the environmental factors were established. The correlation analysis shows that there are significant correlations between SST and CPUE in two consecutive sea areas (Area 1, Area 2) in June. They are 42.5°−44°S, 57.5°−59°W (Area 1) and 39°−39.5°S, 45°−46°W (Area 2) respectively. The inferred spawning area of I. argentinus ranges from 37.5°S to 44°S and 41.5°W to 51.5°W, and the optimum SST in the spawning area is 16°C to 17.5°C. The SSTs of two featured areas (Area 1, Area 2) and Ps in the inferred spawning area are used to establish four types of multivariate linear prediction models of abundance index (ICPUE), the results show that the fourth model containing the featured areas and Ps in the inferred spawning area is superior to the other 3 models, and its prediction model of abundance index is ICPUE=1.390 4×Ps+0.261 9×SST_{Area 1}+0.096 2×SST_{Area 2}−3.248 0.