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Grey catastrophe year prediction for the abundance of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific
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Mingyang Xie1, Xinjun Chen1, 2, 3, 4, 5, *
Haiyang Xuebao | 2020, 42(4) : 40 - 46
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Haiyang Xuebao | 2020, 42(4): 40-46
Marine Biology
Grey catastrophe year prediction for the abundance of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific
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Mingyang Xie1, Xinjun Chen1, 2, 3, 4, 5, *
Affiliations
  • 1 College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
  • 2 Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 201306, China
  • 3 National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306, China
  • 4 Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China
  • 5 Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 201306, China
Published: 2020-04-25 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.04.005
Outline
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Neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii is a short-lived cephalopod species whose abundance is highly susceptible to marine environmental changes and has large interannual fluctuations. Based on the statistical data from the squid fishery in the Northwest Pacific from 1995 to 2017, catch per unit effort (CPUE) was derived as an abundance index and the grey catastrophic prediction method was used to establish the GM(1, 1)model for the upper and lower catastrophic years and to forecast the future catastrophic years. The results show that the average relative error of the lower limit catastrophic prediction model established based on GLM-model-standardized CPUE is 15.32%, the average relative error of the upper catastrophic prediction model is 8.19%, and the accuracy tests for both models attain the level I accuracy. The study forecasts that the next upper catastrophic year may occur in 2021 (CPUE≥2.39 t/(ship·a)), and the lower catastrophe year occurred in 2027 (CPUE≤2.13 t/(ship·a)). The study also suggests that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-La Nina events are important factors driving large fluctuations in the squid abundance. The forecast can provide a reference for squid fishing enterprises and managing departments in the Northwest Pacific.

Ommastrephes bartramii  /  abundance  /  grey catastrophic year prediction  /  GM (1, 1) model  /  climate change
Mingyang Xie, Xinjun Chen. Grey catastrophe year prediction for the abundance of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2020 , 42 (4) : 40 -46 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.04.005
Year 2020 volume 42 Issue 4
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Article Info
doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.04.005
  • Receive Date:2019-05-25
  • Online Date:2026-03-26
  • Published:2020-04-25
Article Data
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History
  • Received:2019-05-25
  • Revised:2019-06-28
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Affiliations
    1 College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
    2 Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 201306, China
    3 National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306, China
    4 Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China
    5 Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 201306, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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