Neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii is a short-lived cephalopod species whose abundance is highly susceptible to marine environmental changes and has large interannual fluctuations. Based on the statistical data from the squid fishery in the Northwest Pacific from 1995 to 2017, catch per unit effort (CPUE) was derived as an abundance index and the grey catastrophic prediction method was used to establish the GM(1, 1)model for the upper and lower catastrophic years and to forecast the future catastrophic years. The results show that the average relative error of the lower limit catastrophic prediction model established based on GLM-model-standardized CPUE is 15.32%, the average relative error of the upper catastrophic prediction model is 8.19%, and the accuracy tests for both models attain the level I accuracy. The study forecasts that the next upper catastrophic year may occur in 2021 (CPUE≥2.39 t/(ship·a)), and the lower catastrophe year occurred in 2027 (CPUE≤2.13 t/(ship·a)). The study also suggests that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-La Nina events are important factors driving large fluctuations in the squid abundance. The forecast can provide a reference for squid fishing enterprises and managing departments in the Northwest Pacific.
| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |