Based on the Earth System Model (ESM2M) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), combined with Argo observation data and the reanalysis dataset compiled by Ishii et al., this paper presents the seasonal variation characteristics of mixed layer depth (MLD) and subduction process in the subtropical Northeast Pacific Ocean (10°−40°N, 110°−160°W) under the present climate background and extreme enhancement of radiative forcing are presented, to study its response to global warming. Under the current climate background, both of MLD and subduction rate reach their maximum values in winter. The main contribution items of subduction rate have significant seasonal variation. From January to May, the subduction rate is mainly controlled by the change of lateral induction rate, while from June to December, the main mechanism is the change of Ekman pumping velocity controlled by wind stress curl. After global warming, the main control elements of seasonal signals remain unchanged. However, under the influences of wind stress curl and other factors, the MLD in each season decreased and the range of the core maximum region shrinks. As the decrease in winter is much larger than that in summer, the seasonal fluctuation range (amplitude) of MLD is significantly smaller. In the long run, MLD shows a trend of continuous shallower, and the weakening of MLD front caused by the weakening of its spatial non-uniformity is the key to control the weakening of lateral induction rate and eventually lead to the weakening of the subduction rate. Since the seasonal variation signal of Ekman pumping velocity has little response to global warming, subduction rate is most strongly affected in winter. The results show that the contribution proportion of the two key factors to the subduction rate changes with the seasons: when the MLD front is strong in winter, the influence of the lateral induction rate will be significantly enhanced. The different variations of the two factors before and after global warming will significantly change the seasonal amplitude of the subduction rate, which may have a profound impact on the formation and transport of mode water in the region.