收藏切换
Based on wavelet analysis of the direct economic loss of the typhoon storm surge in China cycle analysis and prediction
收藏切换
PDF
Xu Liu1, 2, Jianxi Dong1, Shan Jiang1, Dajun Zhao3, Xiang Fu1, Zheng Wang1, Yingqi Liang1
Haiyang Xuebao | 2023, 45(7) : 137 - 146
Less
收藏切换
Haiyang Xuebao | 2023, 45(7): 137-146
Article
Based on wavelet analysis of the direct economic loss of the typhoon storm surge in China cycle analysis and prediction
Full
Xu Liu1, 2, Jianxi Dong1, Shan Jiang1, Dajun Zhao3, Xiang Fu1, Zheng Wang1, Yingqi Liang1
Affiliations
  • 1National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
  • 2School of Economics & Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
  • 3College of Economics and Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
Published: 2023-07-01 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023109
Outline
收藏切换

Based on the statistical data of direct economic losses of typhoon storm surge in China from 1989 to 2021, the economic losses of storm surge disasters in China during 32 years showed a significant downward trend, showing a thick-tailed distribution as a whole, and a normal distribution after logarithmic processing. The periodic changes of the direct economic losses of typhoon storm surge in China were analyzed by Morlet wavelet analysis method. According to the t-test, there were two quasi-high-frequency oscillations in the whole region, 1−2 years and 7−8 years oscillation , but the annual cycle gradually shortened to 3−5 years with the change of time. It indicated that the economic loss sequence of storm surge had high-frequency oscillation and multi-period nested low-frequency oscillation. On this basis, Daubechies wavelet decomposition was used to separate high frequency signal and low frequency signal. According to the results of root mean square error (RMSE) and signal-to-noise ratio, Daubechies wavelet base was set the vanishing moment is 7 and the number of decomposition layers is 2 for the direct economic loss time series of typhoon storm surges in China from 1989 to 2021, which had the optimal decomposition and reconstruction effect. Based on the results of stationarity test and white noise test of wavelet coefficients of each decomposition layer, the combined wavelet decomposed−ARMA model was established. The simulation accuracy and prediction accuracy were both better than that of single Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model and Fourier series expansion model, which verified the reliability and superiority of wavelet decomposition method for rapid assessment of economic loss of typhoon storm surge in China.

storm surge economic losses  /  Mann-Kendall nonparametric test  /  Morlet wavelet transform  /  Daubechies wavelet decomposition  /  autoregressive integrated moving average
Xu Liu, Jianxi Dong, Shan Jiang, Dajun Zhao, Xiang Fu, Zheng Wang, Yingqi Liang. Based on wavelet analysis of the direct economic loss of the typhoon storm surge in China cycle analysis and prediction[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2023 , 45 (7) : 137 -146 . DOI: 10.12284/hyxb2023109
Year 2023 volume 45 Issue 7
PDF
306
139
Cite this Article
BibTeX
Article Info
doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023109
  • Receive Date:2022-08-31
  • Online Date:2025-12-28
  • Published:2023-07-01
Article Data
Affiliations
History
  • Received:2022-08-31
  • Revised:2023-01-02
Funding
Affiliations
    1National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081, China
    2School of Economics & Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
    3College of Economics and Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, China
References
Share
https://castjournals.cast.org.cn/joweb/hyxb/EN/10.12284/hyxb2023109
Share to
QR

Scan QR to access full text

Cite this article
BibTeX
Citations
表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
关闭全屏
  • BibTeX
  • EndNote
  • RefWorks
  • TxT