Yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) and skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) are pelagic and highly migratory species, serving as primary targets in global pelagic fisheries. Their population distribution and abundance are susceptible to the impacts of climate-induced changes in the marine environment, exhibiting a response lag. In order to explore the influence of climate change on the juvenile populations of yellowfin tuna and skipjack tuna in the western and central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) and the associated lag effects, this study, based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, analyzed the impact of the Oceanic Niño index (ONI) on the Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE) of yellowfin tuna and skipjack tuna in the WCPO purse seine fishery from 1982 to 2021. Different time step lengths were employed to simulate the lag effects (0−12 months) of CPUE response to ONI. The results indicate LSTM is a suitable tool for analyzing the lag effects of relationship between the abundance of pelagic species, such as yellowfin tuna and skipjack tuna, and environmental factors like ONI. In the WCPO regions north and south of the equator, there exists a time lag in the response of juvenile yellowfin tuna and skipjack tuna CPUE to ONI, with the optimal lag period being 12 months for each region. The correspondence of the optimal lag period with the age of the harvested population (nearly 1 year) suggests that the reproductive capacity or survival rate of juvenile yellowfin tuna and skipjack tuna is influenced by climate change and the resulting changes in the marine environment. The research methodology and results provide new insights for subsequent studies in analyzing the stock dynamics and distribution of key species in the WCPO.
| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |