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Application of Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation in the construction of synthetic typhoon in Northwest Pacific Ocean
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Xiaowu Xu1, 2, 3, Yongping Chen1, 2, *, Ya Tan1, 2, Chang Liu1, 2, Shanglu Li3, Zhumei Che3
Haiyang Xuebao | 2024, 46(3) : 1 - 11
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Haiyang Xuebao | 2024, 46(3): 1-11
Application of Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation in the construction of synthetic typhoon in Northwest Pacific Ocean
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Xiaowu Xu1, 2, 3, Yongping Chen1, 2, *, Ya Tan1, 2, Chang Liu1, 2, Shanglu Li3, Zhumei Che3
Affiliations
  • 1. The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
  • 2. College of Harbor, Costal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
  • 3. Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310007, China
Published: 2024-03-31 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2024014
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Reliable assessment of the impact and risk of typhoons on coastal areas is very important for scientific resistance to typhoon disasters. China has a detailed typhoon observation record with a history of only 60 years, which makes it limited in estimating extreme wind speed with a long recurrence period and corresponding extreme wave height and tide level. The insufficient records also limits the application of data-driven models in typhoon disaster prediction. Therefore, it is necessary to construct synthetic typhoons based on the actual typhoon travel law to overcome the problem of insufficient historical observations. In this paper, 18 671 synthetic typhoons were constructed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean by using the Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation, and the parameters such as the start and end position, frequency of occurrence, travel speed and direction of the synthetic typhoons were statistically compared and analyzed with historical typhoons. The results show that the synthetic typhoon constructed based on the proposed method is generally consistent with the traveling characteristics of historical typhoons in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Through the construction of these synthetic typhoons, a synthetic typhoon database with sufficient data and reliable performance can be provided for the study of extreme wave and storm surge along the coast of China.

kernel density estimation  /  Empirical Path Model  /  synthetic typhoon  /  Northwest Pacific Ocean
Xiaowu Xu, Yongping Chen, Ya Tan, Chang Liu, Shanglu Li, Zhumei Che. Application of Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation in the construction of synthetic typhoon in Northwest Pacific Ocean[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2024 , 46 (3) : 1 -11 . DOI: 10.12284/hyxb2024014
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Article Info
doi: 10.12284/hyxb2024014
  • Receive Date：2023-07-12
  • Online Date：2025-11-26
  • Published：2024-03-31
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History
  • Received：2023-07-12
  • Revised：2023-10-20
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Affiliations
    1. The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    2. College of Harbor, Costal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
    3. Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310007, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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